2025全球房地产资本市场年度回顾报告

After a chastening few years, the tide is turning. Thecyclical factors weighing on property values andinvestment activity are beginning to unwind – and thenascent recovery in real estate capital markets should Oliver SalmonDirector, World ResearchGlobal Capital Markets+44 (0) 20 7535 2984 Rasheed Hassan Head of Global Cross BorderInvestmentGlobal Capital Markets This report, based on a series of in-depth interviewswith key stakeholders across the global Savills business,as well as data and analysis from the wider research Contents Global04-06 Asia Pacific07-14 15-25 EMEA 26-30 North America Global After treading water for much of the year, real estatecapital markets ended 2024 on a bright note.Overallliquidity remains well down on past levels, but turnoverin the final quarter rose by more than 25%, providing sector was perhaps the story of 2024, with investment Most major markets returned to growth in 2024. Australiastands out, underpinned by several major transactions,while growth in South Korea was supported by extremelystrong fundamentals in the office sector. Japan, meanwhile,is the only market that has also outperformed pre- The recovery is broad-based, extending beyond aparticular market or region and not concentrated inone sector.‘Beds and sheds’ are leading the recovery The same cannot be said for fundraising activity. In normalmarket conditions, fundraising would be expected to leaddeal activity. If this pattern would hold true, the outlookfor dealmaking would be somewhat muted, as it remains achallenging environment to raise capital. Larger funds with The average deal size rose by 10% globally in 2024 andmajor institutions are back in the market, with portfolio andM&A deals rising by nearly 50% in the final quarter. Bothcross border and domestic institutional investors increased ‘extend-and-pretend’ in an environment where liquidity isimproving. According to McMurdo, “lenders have been veryreluctant to force the issue, because they know it wouldbe counterproductive to push assets into a falling market. But in this cycle, a recovery in transactional activity isnot contingent on fundraising.Instead, the correlationwill run the other way. First, there is plenty of dry Underpinning all of this is a more stable macroeconomicenvironment –with a global easing cycle now wellestablished following the US Fed’s 50bps rate cut backin September, and some of the political uncertainty nowremoved following a year of elections. This has helped Second, with institutional target allocations remainingbroadly stable, it is the recycling of capital through thetransactional market that will allow for new fundraisingcommitments. Many closed-ended funds launched in This process will provide important impetus to dealactivity over the next few years, as more product isreleased for sale.In a number of markets, volumes Investors are generally showing an increased appetitefor risk.In part, this reflects an early cycle dynamic;for high-conviction investors, now is the time to takeon more risk and maximise returns. But the return ofinstitutional capital will be key in sustaining a recoveryin liquidity, not least because higher risk strategiesrely on it for an exit plan. Jeffrey is relatively optimistic We are also likely to see more motivated sellers nextyear. There is some distress in the market, but it has notbeen anywhere near the levels most expected whencentral banks started ratcheting up interest rates. As Asia Pacific Economic growth will continue to trend lower as aconsequence, not least due to a demographic outlookthat is drawing comparisons with Japan of the 1990s.This will feed into the wider region; China is the largest Slowing inflation and more accommodative monetary Pacific in 2025,but China casts a long shadow over theoutlook. The Chinese economy will continue to struggleamidst an ongoing property market downturn and weak Elsewhere, a recovery in real wage growth is helpingto support activity in key markets, including in Australiaand South Korea. A continued reallocation of globalcapital away from China also stands to benefit the rest The central government has been ramping up stimulusefforts in the second half of 2024 and there remains plentyof fiscal space to support the economy. Deflationary risksare elevated given weak domestic demand, suggesting Asset:KM Nishi-Umeda Building,Osaka, JapanSector:OfficeSavills Role:Advised VendorPurchaser:ConfidentialVendor:ConfidentialNIY:ConfidentialPrice:JPY 14.6bn Inflation remains largely a positive phenomenonin Japan, supporting a long-awaited exit from adeflationary spiral that has beset the economy over thelast two decades. A recovery in real wages is supporting the US and so may attract the ire of the new US President.Meanwhile ‘higher-for-longer’ in the US will have Asia Pacific real estate capital markets have been notablyresilient in recent years.The US$190bn invested acrossthe region last year represented a near 13% increase on202