黄金需求趋势：2026年第一季度

Gold Demand TrendsQ1 2026 Bar and coin buying drove Q1 demand Highlights Global demandhit a new record high value The LBMA (PM) gold price set anew quarterly average record ofUS$4,873/oz.The price hit ahistorical high of US$5,405/oz inJanuary, followed by a notable Total Q1 gold demand, including OTC, was 2% higher y/y at 1,231t. This modestgrowth in volumes combined with gold’s exceptional price rise, generated a 74% Bar and coin demand of 474t (+42%) was the second highest quarter on record.Asian investors led the charge, hoovering up gold investment products. Buying of gold-backed ETFs continued in Q1 (+62t), but at a lower rate than thevery strong Q1’25 (+230t) following sizable outflows from US funds in March. The supply of gold increased inQ1 by 2% y/y to1,231t.Modestgrowth in mine productiontogether with a 5% uptick in Amid record high gold prices, jewellery demand volumes remained underpressure (-23% y/y), while levels of spend again increased (+31%), signalling Central banks bought 244t (+3% y/y) of gold on a net basis in Q1 despite avisible uptick in selling activity during the quarter. Investment demand now farexceeds fabrication.Weakerjewellery demand alongsidegrowing investor interest in gold Demand for gold used in technology edged 1% higher to 82t, fuelled largely bythe continued growth in AI infrastructure. Outlook Geopolitics remain front andcentre in our outlook for golddemand in 2026. Our view remainsthat investment and central bankdemand will be supported byongoing geopolitical risk, withfurther investment impetus from For more information pleasecontact:research@gold.org Gold supply and demand •Overall,Asian demand will likely remain a key source ofstrength in investment, as concern over global geopolitics Outlook •Jewellery spend is likely to be resilient, absent economicshocks, but tonnage demand is expected to slip further as Geopolitical factors areexpected to remainfront and centre indriving gold demand for2026 and beyond. This supports continuedcentral bank net buying, broad global goldETF inflows,andbar and coin accumulation. •Central bank buying is expected to be solid at levels closeto those in 2025. Demand shows good traction despiteprice volatility and continued geoeconomic risks couldprovide additional upside. However, periodic mobilisation •Mineproduction is likely torisemodestlyagain in 2026,although we are monitoring the effects of energyshortages on operations in some regions.Recycling isrising but is expected to be constrained by low near- •Government bond yields are likely to stay elevated until aclearer path for policy rates emerges as central banksgrapple with supply shocks from the US-Israel-Iran war Investment The geopolitical risk premium that has helped lift gold overthe past few years is set to continue and perhaps expand asthe year progresseswith uncertainty about thenew FederalReserve chair,including the timing of his confirmation, aswell asstrained US-China relations all potentially •The geopolitical risk premium that has helped lift goldover the past few years is set to continue and possibly •As a result, demand forgoldETFs and OTC could bepositive but lower than in 2025.Bar and coindemand, onthe other hand, is likely to feature more in 2026 as highprices, a lack of viable alternative investments in some This is likely to support global gold ETF, barandcoinsas ithas done to date. However, ETF demand may not reach theheights of 2025 as rates may stay higher for longer.This islikely to weigh on gold demand from some investors, unless Central banks Initial estimates of central bank net buyingin Q1arereassuringly robust, particularly in light ofrecent pricevolatility andnotable mobilisation of reserves.But we don’trule out furthertacticalrebalancing activity as a result ofMiddle East disruptions, liquidity needs and foreign The combination of these factors is likely to see investmentdemand remain positive but below 2025 levels. Indian bar and coin demand and local gold ETFs started theyear on a strong footing. The shift into investment is likely tocontinue in 2026 on the back of price momentum, Supply BroadAsianinvestment demand across the board,particularly in China,should similarly benefit from pricemomentum, rising safe-haven demand and a lack of Mine production is likely to see modest growth again in 2026as high prices drive incremental increases in both the LSMand ASGM segments. Some production disruptions fromdiesel shortages may materialise in mines in Oceania and Fabrication Jewellery demand was softer than anticipated in Q1, leadingus to downgrade our full-year expected fabrication figure. Recycling Persistent high prices (with y-t-d gains already matching lastyear) remain a headwind to global demand. And thepotential for significant global economic fallout from the Recycling has started to pick up, perhaps partly on concernsabout gold’s volatility and the squeeze on consumer walletsfrom higherenergy prices. A prol