黄金需求趋势：印度关注2026年第一季度

Gold Demand Trends: India FocusQ1 2026 Investment take the lead Highlights Shift in demand mix Domestic prices posted stronggains in Q1 Indian gold demand rose 10% y/y to 151t in Q1; in value terms it surged 99% y/yto a Q1 record of INR2,275bn (US$25bn). MCX goldspot prices rose 20% q/qand 81% y/y to a record Q1average of INR151,108/10g. Investment demand led growth, with volume up 54% y/y to 82t and value up179% y/y, outpacing jewellery demand. Bar and coin demand (62t) nearly matched jewellery demand (66t), while ETFsreached a record high. Outlook Investment demand is likely tounderpin India’s gold market, evenas jewellery demand remains Record spending, up 47% y/y helped cushion volume softness in gold jewellery (-19% y/y). India remained a key driver of global gold demand, ranking second in bothjewellery and investment segments. For more information pleasecontact:research@gold.org Total demand and prices Total gold demand in Q1 rose 10% y/y to 151t, althoughvolumes remained 9% below their long-term average. Invalue terms, demand nearly doubled, surging 99% y/y to arecord INR2,275bn (US$25bn). Strong investment demand of82t, led by bars, coins and ETFs, more than offset weaker (down 3% q/q and 6% y/y). Prices hit record highs during thequarter (US$5,405/oz and INR175,231/10g) beforecorrecting by ~15%. Despite this pullback, the uptrendprevailed, and Q1 ended with domestic prices 10% higher The domestic gold price (MCX spot gold price) rose sharply inQ1 2026: up 20% q/q and 81% y/y to a record quarterlyaverage of INR151,108/10g, outpacing international (LBMAGold Price PM) gains of 18% q/q and 70% y/y. The stronger Strong consumer spending underpinneda robust Q1 forleading listed jewellers with revenue growthranging from32% to 124% y/y. Gains were driven by higher ticket sizes,rising traction in plain gold jewellery, and a sharp increase incoin sales, while digital channels continued to gain Jewellery Jewellery spending surges Continued store expansion and associated stockingrequirements have kept industry inventory levels elevated at India’s gold jewellery demand softened in Q1 as record-highprices weighed on affordability. Even so, spending surged toa record high, underscoring resilient consumer demand.Volumes declined 19% y/y to 66t–the second-lowest first-quarter on record since 2000–largely reflecting an 81% y/y In a global context, India accounted for 22% of jewellerydemand in Q1 and ranked as the second-largest marketafter China (Chart 4). While volumes declined, the drop was Demand during the quarter was led by wedding-relatedpurchases, with some discretionary buying from higher-income purchasers who continued to favour heavier pieces.Meanwhile, higher prices continued to nudge mass-marketconsumers toward lighter-weight, lower-carat, and studded (Chart 6). Chart3: Spending outpaces volume decline Quarterly Indian jewellery demand, tonnes and INRbn* Chart6:Investment surpasses jewellery Investment Share of jewellery, bars and coins and ETF in total Indiandemand Gold demand tilts towards A structural shift in gold demand is becoming morepronounced, with investment gaining momentum.Investment demand, across bars and coins This shift is reflected in the demand mix: investment demandrose to nearly 70% of total demand in Q1 (Chart 6), whilejewellery’s share fell to around 30%,1the lowest level in our Quarterly Indian bar and coin and ETF demand, tonnes* Bar and coin narrows gap with Bar and coin demand rose sharply in Q1, increasing 34% y/yto 62t, the highest first-quarter level since 2013, while valuedemand surged 142% y/y to INR941bn. Elevated gold prices– especially early during the quarter when gold The strength of demand in this segment marked a notableshift in the pattern of consumption, with bar and coininvestment nearly matching jewellery demand (66t); adeparture for a market in which jewellery has traditionallydominated. Bars and coins accounted for 52% of total This trend is also visible across other formats.Digital goldpurchases via the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) remainedstrong in Q1. Transaction values nearly quadrupled y/y In India made up for 13% of global bar and coin demand, withy/y growth outpacing most major markets, barring China (Chart 7). Bar and coin demand in select countries, tonnes* Stable reserves at the RBI Record quarter for Indian gold The RBI’s gold reserves have remained steady at around880t since mid-2025. However, gold’s share in total foreignexchange reserves has increased from 12% in March 2025 to17% in March 2026, largely reflecting valuation gains in gold Q1 2026 was a record quarter for Indian gold ETFs, with netdemand of 20t,driven by strong investor participation amidelevated gold prices and subdued domestic financialmarkets. Notably, nearly 80% of these inflows wereconcentrated in January, reflecting a surge in early-quarter Overall, holdings rose to 115t by the end of the quarter,while AUM increased 191% y/y and