小米：2026投资者日要点——人工智能、海外扩张、内存成本及人形机器人

Eunice Lee, CFA+852 2123 2606eunice.lee@bernsteinsg.com Price Target Xiaomi: 2026 Investor Day takeaways — AI, Overseas, Memory,and Humanoid robotics Xiaomi hosted its 2026 Investor Day earlier today, outlining its key corporate strategies. Thisnote highlights the main takeaways across AI, overseas expansion, rising memory costs, andhumanoid robotics. AI has been positioned as Xiaomi’s core strategic priority, with management guidingfor RMB 60bn of AI investment over 2026–2028, emphasized as a baseline that could risefurther. The MiMo V2.5 large language model will be open-sourced shortly and adaptedfor domestic Chinese chips, and early monetization has shown traction, with over one-thirduser retention and Pro/Max tiers contributing c. 50% of token revenue. AI is being scaledacross Xiaomi’s ecosystem via Miclaw, a general-purpose agent already on smartphones(beta) and set to expand to PCs, tablets, and eventually the broader ecosystem includingEVs, enhancing intelligent driving and smart cockpit applications. On monetization, Xiaomiis pursuing three parallel paths: driving hardware sales by delivering an enhanced, AI-powered user experience; developing subscription-based service models; and monetizingthrough token sales.In our view: Xiaomi’s latest release demonstrates solid progressand underscores its strong commitment to AI. The company benefits from an integratedecosystem spanning smartphones, EVs, and IoT devices, supported by a broad customerbase. We believe this comprehensive reach positions Xiaomi well to unlock monetizationoptionality for future AI applications. Overseas markets expected to contribute to around 50% of total EV volume, andXiaomi plans to formally begin its international EV rollout in 2027 2H, starting with high-endmodels in Europe, followed by right-hand-drive markets such as the UK in 2028 1H.In ourview: Initial volumes are likely modest (c. 10–20k units) in 2027, particularly as Germany willlikely be the first entry point, which we see as more competitive than markets such as the UK,Spain, or the Nordics, before scaling as market coverage broadens from 2028. Investment Implications We rate Xiaomi Outperform with price target for 1810.HK at HK$46.00(unchanged). DETAILS Beyond EVs, overseas IoT remains a core growth pillar, with international markets—currently contributing only one-third of revenue despite being twice the size of China—offering 4–5x growth potential, supported by 30–40% overseas IoTgrowth and strategic focus on regions such as Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Europe.We have long been positive onXiaomi’s overseas white spaceand the key strategic challenge now is repositioning Xiaomi as a premium brand, critical fordriving adoption across its broader ecosystem, particularly EVs. It is notable that the company is progressing on smartphonepremiumization with Mi 15T. Overall ASP grew by c.RMB 150 and gross margins by c.5ppt, according to the company. Memory costs are likely to remain structurally higher, with Q2 still showing elevated YoY pressure and more moderateincreases in Q3–Q4, but off a higher comparison base. DRAM prices rose sharply from 2025 Q2 and NAND from 2025 Q3,driving memory costs to roughly five times 2025 Q1 levels; for example, a 12GB+256GB configuration increased from just overUS$30 to more than US$150, before factoring in FX and VAT at the BOM level. In response, Xiaomi is treating higher memorycosts as the new norm and is adjusting its strategy byoptimizing product definitions and mix,dynamically balancing scaleand profitabilitythrough higher ASPs, andreducing hardware dependency via software optimization(e.g., achieving prior8GB-level performance with 6GB RAM). The company is alsoenhancing valuefor its installed base through upgrade services,such as battery replacements for the Mi 13 series that add 300–500mAh capacity. Xiaomi showcased its latest humanoid robot, CyberOne, at the conclusion of today’s Investor Day. During thedemonstration, CyberOne smoothly and steadily distributed gifts in paper bags. The humanoid robot was also able to “respond”to, or say “imitate”, several human gestures, such as waving, making a peace sign, and forming a heart shape with its hands.The engaging performance attracted significant attention from investors in attendance. We understand that CyberOne hasalready been deployed at Xiaomi’s EV factories, where it is responsible for tasks such as affixing logos to vehicles, achievinga reported success rate of around 90% over a 3-hour period. The company expects humanoid robots to be increasinglyready for manufacturing and factory use cases over the next three to five years. This appears to be Xiaomi’s near-term focus,before eventually expanding toward more generalized humanoid robots for broader everyday applications.(For more: XiaomiCyberOne)(Exhibit 1 - Exhibit 2) EXHIBIT 1:Xiaomi showcased its latest humanoid robot,CyberOne, which smoothly and steadily distributed giftsin paper bags, and was able to “imitat