2026年4月商品市场展望

A World Bank GroupReport MarketsOutlook AprAprOctOct A World BankGroup Report APRIL 2026 CommodityMarketsOutlook © 2026 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved. This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations,and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board ofExecutive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy,completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors,omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use theinformation, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, links/footnotesand other information shown in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerningthe legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The citation of worksauthored by others does not mean the World Bank endorses the views expressed by those authors or the content oftheir works. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privilegesand immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo. Under the Creative Commons Attribution license, you are free tocopy, distribute, transmit, and adapt this work, including for commercial purposes, under the followingconditions: Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: World Bank. 2026.Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2026.Washington, DC: World Bank. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO Translations—If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with theattribution:This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an official World Bank translation. The World Bank shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation. Adaptations—If you create an adaptation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with theattribution: This is an adaptation of an original work by The World Bank. Views and opinions expressed in theadaptation are the sole responsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by TheWorld Bank. Third-party content—The World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content containedwithin the work. The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party-owned individualcomponent or part contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties. The risk of claimsresulting from such infringement rests solely with you. If you wish to reuse a component of the work, it is yourresponsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that reuse and to obtain permission from thecopyright owner. Examples of components can include, but are not limited to, tables, figures, or images. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group,1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. The cutoff date for the data used in this report was April 20, 2026. Table of Contents Acknowledgments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .iiiExecutive Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1Commodity Market Developments and Outlook. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15Energy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17Agriculture. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26Fertilizers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .34Metals and minerals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .36Special Focus. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45 Figures 1 The state of commodity markets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22 Developments in commodity markets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33 Outlook for commodity price indexes and energy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .