2024年4月大宗商品市场展望报告

A World BankGroup Report CommodityMarketsOutlook AprOct APRIL 2024 CommodityMarketsOutlook © 2024 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved. This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, andconclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of ExecutiveDirectors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currencyof the data included in this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in theinformation, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions setforth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply anyjudgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance ofsuch boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges andimmunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo. Under the Creative Commons Attribution license, you are free to copy,distribute, transmit, and adapt this work, including for commercial purposes, under the following conditions: Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: World Bank. 2024.Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2024. Washington,DC: World Bank. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO. Translations—If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:Thistranslation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an official World Bank translation. The WorldBank shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation. Adaptations—If you create an adaptation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:This is an adaptation of an original work by The World Bank. Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are the soleresponsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by The World Bank. Third-party content—The World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content contained within thework. The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party-owned individual component or partcontained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties. The risk of claims resulting from suchinfringement rests solely with you. If you wish to reuse a component of the work, it is your responsibility to determinewhether permission is needed for that reuse and to obtain permission from the copyright owner. Examples of componentscan include, but are not limited to, tables, figures, or images. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 HStreet NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. The cutoff date for the data used in this report was April 17, 2024. Table of Contents Acknowledgments .......................................................................................................................... vExecutive Summary......................................................................................................................... 1Commodity Market Developments and Outlook............................................................................ 9Energy ..................................................................................................................... 11Agriculture .............................................................................................................. 20Fertilizers................................................................................................................. 27Metals and Minerals ................................................................................................ 29Precious Metals ....................................................................................................... 31Special FocusForecasting Industrial Commodity Prices: An Assessment........................................ 33 1The state of commodity markets ...............................................................................22Commodity price outlook and risks...........................................................................43Oil market: price developments ...............................................................................114Oil market: demand and supply developments ........................................................125Outlook for oil markets ..................