2026年一季度PitchBook NVCA风险监测（英）

The definitive review of the US venture capital ecosystem Contents Market overview4 PitchBook Data, Inc. NIZAR TARHUNIExecutive Vice President of Research and Market IntelligencePAUL CONDRASenior Director, Global Head of Private Markets Research NVCA policy highlights6 Analysis KYLE STANFORD, CAIADirector, VC ResearchEMILY ZHENGSenior Research Analyst, Venture CapitalKAIDI GAOSenior Research Analyst, Venture Capital Dealmaking7 A word from J.P. Morgan9 pbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com Data CALEB WILKINSData Analyst Regional spotlight 11 PublishingReport and cover design byJOSIE DOAN,MEGAN WOODARD, andADRIANA HANSEN AI spotlight Female founders National Venture Capital Association (NVCA) BOBBY FRANKLINPresident & CEOSHILOH TILLEMANN-DICKResearch DirectorEVAN KELLERDirector of CommunicationsROBIN CEPPOSCommunications ManagerKYLIE LAPSLEYSpecial Projects Manager A word from Dentons Global Venture Technology Group Investor trends Contact NVCA nvca.orgnvca@nvca.org Venture debt A word from EisnerAmper J.P. Morgan Commercial Banking ANDREW KRESSECo-Head of Innovation EconomyJOHN CHINACo-Head of Innovation EconomyPAMELA ALDSWORTHCo-Head of Venture Capital RelationshipsCARLY RODDYCo-Head of Venture Capital RelationshipsGINGER CHAMBLESSHead of Market Insights Exits Fundraising Contact J.P. Morganjpmorgan.com/innovationeconomy Methodology 33 Dentons Global Venture Technology and EmergingGrowth Companies Group References34 VICTOR H. BOYAJIANGlobal Chair Contact Dentonsdentonsventurebeyond.comvictor.boyajian@dentons.com EisnerAmper PETER COGANManaging Partner, Financial Services Contact EisnerAmperwww.eisneramper.com/vcpeter.cogan@eisneramper.com We are the bank of theinnovation economy We’re here to help you grow—at every stage. Decadesof venture expertise, an expansive investor networkand solutions that evolve with your business. Explore our startup banking solutions atjpmorgan.com/InnovationEconomy Market overview AI operating in much more startup-friendly early-stage market AI versus non-AI Early-Stage VC Dealmaking Indicator by quarter Q1 2026 was one for the recordbooks. The $267.2 billion in quarterlydeal value topped all full-year totalsexcept for those of 2021 and 2025,and the $347.3 billion in exit value seta quarterly high, already placing 2026as the second-highest year for exitvalue ever. However, if you excludethe five largest deals and exits in Q1,those figures fall by 73.2% and 86.6%,respectively. Concentration has definedVC in recent years, but Q1 marked a newextreme. Four deals above $15 billionwere completed, including OpenAI’s$122 billion financing, and xAI’s mergerwith SpaceX was the largest VC-backedexit of a US company ever, though thenarrative was muted because SpaceXis gearing up for an estimated $1.5trillion+ IPO later this year. registrations. The onset of the warin Iran has added another obstacleto opening the IPO window. Aftertariffs and a government shutdownweighed on 2025’s new listings, Q12026 contended with fresh policyand geopolitical risks. The publicsoftware-as-a-service- and AI-induced market volatility in late Februaryrevealed a market on edge—and thatinvestors are searching for reasons tosell amid the uncertainty. VC-backedtech startups continue to struggle withelevated past valuations, uncertainmarket conditions, and loomingmega-IPOs. Beneath the top-line figures, the marketremains much the same as it was in2025. Liquidity continues to be tightfor most of the market, and there hasnot been significant movement in IPO Five firms raise 73.1% of new commitments Share of venture capital raised in Q1 2026 is on a different trajectory. 73.1% ofthe capital committed in Q1 went tofive VC firms, and emerging managerscontinue to struggle mightily withattracting capital. As LPs look ahead,the uncertainty in public equity marketswill likely weigh on their willingnessand ability to commit capital to new VCfunds. This will not impact megafundsnearly as much as smaller vehicles andfirms, which will rely more heavily onsmaller, less flexible LPs. More fundsover $1 billion closed in Q1 than duringall of 2025, and we expect megafundcounts to continue to surge toward2022 highs. To say the market underneath isunchanged from the past few yearsdoes not discount the strength at thevery top. Potential IPOs from SpaceX,Anthropic, OpenAI, Databricks, andStripe would provide an enormouswindfall; the top three listings couldnear $2.5 trillion in exit value, morethan the total of all the IPOs in thiscentury. However, this potential maskschallenges that still characterize themarket. The median VC IRR for NorthAmerican fund vintages since 2019sits in the single digits, and the mediandistributions to paid-in multiple forvintages over the past decade remainsbelow 1x. Until there is a broader moveto unlock liquidity, a large portion of theventure market will remain constrained. dry powder will pile into the perceived“top” deals, pushing valuations anddeal s