伊朗冲突：油价与航空

April 2026 Produced by Research & IntelligenceMike Eggleton Summary As a consequence ofthe Iran conflict, air travel is now facing the twin challenges of a sharpescalation in jet fuel costsand the prospect ofsupply shortages. There’s little sign of any Travelwillinevitablybeimpactedbyfuelshortages,andtravelersshouldexpectsomedisruptionnotjusttoflights,butalso to ferries and other forms of public transport. But there isaction that travel managers and travelers can take to prepare for disruption to travel plans. Airlinesarefacing a sudden and sharp increase in one of their largest cost items. Some are more exposed than others, and U.S. airlinesin particular mustalso contend withhigher unitcosts excluding fuel. Some airlines have already increased fares or introduced/increased fuel surcharges. But growing concerns about the state of airtravel demand may limit thefare increasesthey’recomfortable making to around5-10%, according to Tourism Economics. Beyond higherfaresandincreasedfuelsurcharges,airlineshaveotheroptionstoreducetheirexposure to higher jet fuel prices and supply shortages. So far, these have includedcapacity cutsandancillary fee increaseson checked bags. In terms of schedule adjustments, routes with the lowest volumes are likely to be the most vulnerable. Oilprices Supply concerns keep prices elevated Averaging more than $103 per barrel, Brent crude spot prices in March jumped by45%compared to February’s average. With 20-25% of the world’s oil and gas energy needstraveling through the Strait of Hormuz, the Iran conflict has driven oil prices up to levels notseen since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Withthe April 7 announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, oil prices did retreat. But a lot of issues need to be resolved, and the fragility of the arrangement was brought into focus by the failure of the two parties to make much progress in the initial face-to-face talks held over the weekend of April 11-12. With only a limited number of shipsmaking it through the Strait of Hormuz, and likely to be subject to a toll, constraints on oil While oil prices are comparable to2022levels,jet fuel prices have seen amuchsharperincrease. With the crack spread premium over crude oil hitting an all-time high of $80 perbarrel, airlines have seen the cost of jet fueldoublein a matter of weeks. The jet fuel market Fuel supplyissues Some markets are facing supply shortages As well as surging oil prices, the Iran conflict and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuzhave placed significant strain on global fuel supply chains. This will ultimately impact travel,and not just aviation, but also ferry services and both public and private transportation Asia is particularly exposed given its heavy dependence on supplies from the Gulf. China cansource more oil from Russia, but this is unlikely to cover the shortfall, even if it dips into its ownreserves. The situation in the Gulf has complicated India’s efforts to diversify away from Russiansupply. It may now have to take more oil from Russia, as well as from Iran. Once again, however, China, India, Singapore and South Korea are the key exporters of jet fuel to Southeast Asia. Thedisruption to fuel supplies has intensified, as China and Thailand have banned the export of jet fuel, while South Korea has capped fuel exports. Based on projections for jet fuel supply anddemand in 2026, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam are highly exposed, with demand far Asia’s airlines are deploying different tactics in response to the fuel situation. Some are carrying(tankering) extra fuel on outbound flights or adding refueling stops on longer services to avoidshortages at destination airports. Malaysian low-cost carrierAirAsiaXis taking on extra fuel inMalaysia before flying to Vietnam, where fuel supplies are now restricted. With fuel supplies Fuel supplyissues Europe’s biggest air travel markets exposed Europe is also exposed as it relies heavily on the Middle East for its fuel imports. Domestic refineries in keymarkets simply cannot produce enough jet fuel. Much local refining capacity has been lost since the start of thepandemic, and this shortfall is now being compounded by damage sustained by export facilities in the Gulf. Collectively, the five worst-impacted European markets have a jet fuel production shortfall of 500,000 barrelsper day. The U.K. is the most exposed with just a single month’s reserves. Germany and France are believed topossess just under 60 days’ supply. It’s likely that Europe will start tofeelthe supply pinch some time in May. Not all European countries are at risk. The Netherlands leadsthetop five markets with the highest productionsurpluses,withSpainandGreecealsoinmoresecurepositions.But Airports InternationalCouncilEurope(ACI)hasrecently warned theEuropean Commission that Europe could face a systemic jet fuel shortage within three Impact on travelers Advice from Riskline •Check itineraries in adva