贵州茅台业绩报告

Kweichow Moutai 25 April 2026 Results China Alcohol&Tobacco 1Q revenue slightly above expectationson iMoutai, despite margin decline HanZhang ResearchAnalyst+852-2203-5802 Moutai's1Q26total revenueofRMB54.7bn(+6.3%YoY)wasslightlyabovemarket expectations,whileNPATofRMB27.2bn (+1.5%YoY)waslargelyin line. What should be noted from the results?1QMoutai liquor sales increased by5.6%YoYtoRMB46.0bn,and other series liquor rose 12.2%YoYtoRMB7.9bn. By channel, direct sales were up by 27% YoY, comprising 55% of mainbusinessrevenue (upby9pptsYoY),whilesalesfromwholesalersdeclinedby11%YoY.ThisismainlyduetoMoutai'sproactiveactionsonmarket-orientedreform:iMoutaisaleswereupby267%YoYandaccountedfor40%ofmainbusinessrevenue (upby28pptsYoY). Factoringin1Q26customeradvances(-62%QoQand-66%YoY),adjustedsalesdecreasedby2%YoY.This is largelyconsistent withflat (YoY)1Q26cash inflow from selling goods. 1Q GPM dropped by 3.3ppts due to product mix change and ex-factoryprice cut on non-standard products since the beginning of the year,alongwitha 1.1ppts increase in sales tax ratio of revenue; Moutai's1Q26OPMdeclinedby3.0pptsYoY:sellingexpenseratiooftotalrevenuewaslargelyflat,andG&AexpenseratiodroppedbyO.3ppts. Thecompany's1Q26NPMdroppedby2.4pptsYoYto50%,mainlyduetoaforementioned GPM declineplus a decrease in interest income YoY. Valuation:price target trimmed to RMB1,660.00; maintain Buy Moutai'ssharepricehasreboundedby~6%YTDamidthemarket-orientedreform,andFeitianMoutai'swholesalepriceshavestabilizedaroundRMB1,670/bottlerecently (vs.the peak of around RMB1,700/bottle during Chinese New Year) Taking intoaccountMoutai's1Q results,wefine-tuned2026-28Eearningsby1%onaverage.OurDCF-based pricetargetisthereforeloweredtoRMB1,660.00fromRMB1,684.70.The stockis currentlytradingatahistoricallylowvaluationat~21x2026EP/E.Webelievethecompany's1Qperformanceprovidesasolidbasetosupport full-year revenue growthtoward mid-single digits.Maintain Buy IMPORTANTRESEARCHDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSLOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.DeutscheBankdoesand seekstodobusiness withcompanies covered in its research reports.Thus,investors shouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhave a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should considerthis report as only a singleCHINA ("THE PRC")(EXCEPTIN COMPLIANCEWITH THEAPPLICABLELAWSAND REGULATIONS OFPRC),EXCLUDINGSPECIALADMINISTRATIVEREGIONS OFHONG KONGANDMACAU. Alcohol&TobaccoKweichowMoutai Alcohol &TobaccoKweichow Moutai Alcohol&TobaccoKweichowMoutai Reuters:600519.SSBloomberg:600519CH Kweichow Moutai is principally engaged in the productionand distribution of baijiu and common baijiu products, with a leading position in the sauce-flavor and premium baijusegments. Its main product portfolio consists of KweichowMountai liquors and other liquor series. CashFlow(CNYm)Cash flow from operations Balance Sheet (CNYm) Growth&Profitibility20 Key Company Metrics HanZhang+852 2203 5802han-a.zhang@db.com Appendix 1 *Other information available upon request Company nformauritiesotherthantheprimaryitlypublrisk and conflict disalsobefoundathttps:/research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer.Investors ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyU.S.RegulatorsDisclosures marked with an asterisk mayalso be required by at least one jurisdiction in addition to the United States.See ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyNon-USRegulatorsandExplanatoryNotes.2.DeutscheBankand/oritsaffiliate(s)mayactas amarketmakerorliquidityproviderinthefinancialinstrumentsissued bythiscompany. ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyNon-U.S.RegulatorsDisclosures marked with anasterisk mayalsobe requiredby at least one jurisdiction in addition tothe United States.See ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyNon-USRegulatorsandExplanatoryNotes.2.DeutscheBankand/oritsaffiliate(s)mayactasamarketmakerorliquidityproviderinthefinancialinstrumentsissued bythiscompany For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of thisresearch,pleaseseethemostrecentlypublishedcompanyreportorvisitourglobal disclosurelook-uppageonourwebsiteathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/EquityResearchDisclosures.Asidefromwithinthis report,importantriskandconflictdisclosurescanalsobefoundathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer.Investorsarestronglyencouragedtoreviewthis informationbefore investing. AnalystCertification Theviews expressed inthis reportaccuratelyreflectthepersonal views of theundersignedlead analyst(s)aboutthesubjectissuer and the securities of the issuer. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive anycompensationforprovidingaspecificrecommendationorviewinthisreport.Han'Zhang. Alcohol &TobaccoKweichow Moutai CNY 1532.00 Han Zhang01/27/2025Buy, Target Price Change CNY 1784.20, Current Price2CNY 1434.99 Han Zhang3.04/29/2025Buy, Target Price Change CNY 1802.50, Current PriceCNY 1544.00 Han Zhang CNY1431.90Han Zhang5.04/17/2026Buy, Target Price