德国宏观展望

The Hausblick MacroOutlookGermany The HausblickIMacroOutlook Germany focusongeopolitical risksTheglobaleconomyisexpectedtodemonstrateresiliencein2026withgrowthof3.3%,drivenbyasolidUSeconomy.MomentuminChinaandtheEurozoneislikelytoeaseslightlyWhilepolicyratesintheUSandtheEurozonehavelikelyreachedtheirneutral stance,theECBispoisedtoraiseratesinJuneandSeptemberagainstthebackdropoftheenergypriceshock. GlobalEconomy Whilethe energyprice shock is expected to delaytheeconomic recoveryit isunlikelyto derail itentirelyConsequently.weforecasteconomicgrowthof1%for2026The fiscal stimulus is of growing significance and is likely to provide a tangible stabilization for the Germaneconomy.Thedeficit ratioisexpectedtowidento3.9%ofGDP-HeadwindsforGermanforeigntradearelikelytointensifyfurthergiventheconflictintheMiddleEast. GermanEconomy -Asaresultofdemographicchangeanddecliningimmigrationfigures,potentialgrowthisbeingweakenedandriskscomingtoacompletehaltinthemediumtermifnosupply-sidereformsareimplemented.- Rising social expenditure has been putting increasing strain on the federal budget for years, whichnecessitatesurgentreformsofthe social securitysystem.rising wagecosts. StructuralChallenges GlobalEconomy Geopolitical turmoil currently dominates risk perception keepsgeopoliticalriskperceptioninfocusGlobal trade policy tensionshadpreviouslyeasedThegeopoliticalshockhasderailed the recenteasing intradepolicytensionsGlobalsupplychains areprovinglargelyresilient,despitetheblockade of the Strait ofHormuz Energy markets shaken by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz oilandgasistransportedthroughtheStraitof HormuzThe blockadehas essentiallyshutdownthis criticalchokepoint for global energytradeOilpriceshavealreadyincreased significantly sincethestart of the blockadeGlobalgaspricesalsosawanincrease,butremainsignificantlybelow2022levels serves as a gauge of perceivedgeopoliticaluncertaintyEspeciallythefluidsituationintheMiddleEastis reflected inequity market volatilityVolatilityintheEuropeanstockmarkettemporarilyspikedabovethe30-markSofar,equitymarkets seemtobe digestingtheshock wellandvolatilityhasrecentlydeclined againUsbond marketyields alsoincreasedmarkedly The industrial upswing could prove robust despite global uncertainties recentlybeensignificantlyabovethe50-pointmarkInChina,thePMIweakenedslightlyto50.8pointsinMarchAt51.6points,theEurozonePMI has returned to acomfortablelevelwithintheexpansionaryrangeFornow,leadingindicatorsarestill pointingto a brighteroutlook inthemonthsahead Nevertheless, the global economy remains resilient growthtoreach3.3%in2026 growby2.4%,aslightlyfasterpacethaninthepreviousyear Due to consolidation policies,China's economic growth isexpectedtoeaseslightlyto4.9% Eurozone'smomentumisanticipated to slowto 0.5% Inflation risks increase pressure on the ECB to act and fuel a rise in yields probablyat its neutral stanceright nowWe do not expect any changeintheFed'sinterestrates fortheforeseeable futureECBdepositratestandsat2,00%,placing it in the middleof theneutral intervalWeexpecttheECBtohikeratesby25bpsinbothJuneandSeptemberYieldson10-yearUSTreasuriesandGermanBundsarelikelytoriseto4.45%and3.1%,respectively,byyearend GermanEconomy Energy price shock weighs on recovery mood Marchbut,at51.9points,remains firmly in expansionaryterritoryifoBusinessExpectationsalsosaw asignificant droprecentlyfallingtotheirlowest level inmonthsThus,bothsentimentindicators showaclearreaction to the energy priceshockBundesbank'sActivityIndexalsosignalsaneconomicslowdown Slump in consumption risks deepening in light of the Middle East conflict deteriorated markedlyinMarch,droppingto-14points appeartobelargelyun-plannedforthe next 12months,while savingintentions haveincreased Retail sales have largelystagnated in recent months Asimilarpatternisobservedinserviceturnover Energy price developments are likely to further fuel inflation Energyprice shock is alreadynoticeablyfeedingthroughtoconsumerpricesThis is primarily driven bysharppriceincreasesformotorfuels and heating oilHeatingoil pricesrecentlystoodroughly44%abovetheprior-yearlevelGiven their close link to energyprices, food prices are alsoexpectedtoincreasesoonHouseholds anticipate priceincreases overthenext12month resultedinamarkeddropinneworders atthebeginning ofthe yearHowever,orderintakeexcludinglarge-scaleordersstabilized again inFebruaryLikewise,industrialproductionalso declined slightlyat thestartof theyearOverall,the hard data alreadypointed to a subdued starttotheyear,even beforetheenergypriceshock Weak capacity utilization and severe winter weather are weighing on investment recentlystabilizedat78%,itisstill approx. 5% below the long-term average Investmentinmachineryandequipmenthasalsostabilizedbut remainsatalowlevel Unusuallysevereweatherconditionsbroughtconstructionactivity almosttoahalt at thestart of theyear Mostrecently,however,capacityutilization intheconstructionsectorhasmanagedto bounceback Fiscal impulse is gathering mom