全球经济：在分歧力量中保持稳定

WORLDECONOMICOUTLOOKUPDATE Global Economy:Steady amid Divergent Forces WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK UPDATEJAN2026 Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces Global growth is projected to remain resilient at 3.3 percent in 2026 and at 3.2 percent in 2027: rates similar tothe estimated 3.3 percent outturn in 2025. The forecast marks a small upward revision for 2026 and no changefor 2027 compared with that in the October 2025World Economic Outlook(WEO). This steadyperformance on the surface results from the balancing of divergent forces. Headwinds from shifting trade policies areoffset by tailwinds from surging investment related to technology, including artificial intelligence (AI), more so inNorth America and Asia than in other regions, as well as fiscal and monetary support, broadly accommodativefinancial conditions, and adaptability of the private sector. Global headline inflation is expected to decline from anestimated 4.1 percent in 2025 to 3.8 percent in 2026 and further to 3.4 percent in 2027. The inflationprojections are also broadly unchanged from those in October and envisage inflation returning to target moregradually in the United States than in other large economies. Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside. Reevaluation of productivity growth expectations about AIcould lead to a decline in investment and trigger an abrupt financial market correction, spreading from AI-linkedcompanies to other segments and eroding household wealth. Trade tensions could flare up, prolonging uncertaintyand weighing more heavily on activity. Domestic political tensions or geopolitical tensions could erupt, introducingnew layers of uncertainty and disrupting the global economy through their impact on financial markets, supplychains, and commodity prices. Larger fiscal deficits and high public debt could put pressure on long-term interestrates and, in turn, on broader financial conditions. On the upside, activity could be further lifted by AI-relatedinvestment and eventually transform into sustainable growth if faster AI adoption translates into strongproductivity gains and increased business dynamism. Activity could also be supported by a sustained easing intrade tensions. Policies to foster stability and sustainably lift medium-term growth prospects require a keen focuson restoring fiscal buffers, preserving price and financial stability, reducing uncertainty, and implementingstructural reforms without further delay. Momentum Is Uneven Since the October 2025 WEO,trade tensionshave continued to abate but remain subject tooccasional flare-ups. A dispute between China and the United States involving controls onexports of semiconductors and rare earth minerals was quickly followed by a truce that reducedbilateral tariffs until November 2026 and introduced a pause on export controls. US authoritiesalso removed, for all countries, tariffs on some agricultural products, offsetting the higher tariffson certain sectors that were previously announced and are now in effect. This leaves the overallUS effective tariff rate at about the same level as assumed in the October 2025 WEO (Figure 1),but the changes for specific countries can be meaningful. The US Supreme Court is widelyexpected to deliver a decision in early 2026 on the president’s use of the InternationalEmergency Economic Powers Act. Newly signed bilateral trade and other agreements, oftenincluding significant investment and purchase commitments with limited public disclosure, also WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK UPDATE add a layer of complexity. Policy uncertainty,although lower than it was in October, is stillmuch higher than it was in January 2025. Global financial conditionsare stillaccommodative, despite some volatility and rising sovereign yields (Box 1). Stock prices ofmajor technology companies pulled furtherapart from prices of other stocks (Figure 2).Financial conditions, overall, changed little ortightened only moderately. The US dollarrecovered slightly as the momentum ofinvestors’ hedging of exposures slowed butcame briefly under renewed pressurefollowing the initiation of an investigation intothe Federal Reserve chair. Against this backdrop of stabilizing tradetensions and supportive financial conditions,the global economy has continued to beremarkably resilient, adapting to the shiftinglandscape and with momentum varying acrosscountries and sectors. In aggregate,globalgrowthin the third quarter of 2025 deceleratedto 2.4 percent on an annualized basis, aboveexpectations but with upside surprises insome countries offset by downside surprisesin others. A boost from aerospace exportslifted growth to 2.2 percent in France,whereas falling exports continued to weigh onactivity in Germany, leaving real GDPunchanged from the second to the thirdquarters. Japan’s economy contracted by 2.3percent, with private and governmentconsumption offsetting some of the contraction driven by private residential investment and exports. China’s growth decelerated to 2.