债券供需监测

Asia Macro StrategyNotes Bond Demand-Supply Monitor Joey Chung Highlights from this edition of our monthly Asia bond demand-supply monitor; 1.CGBs. Increased LGB and CGB issuance in Q2 and continued weakdemand from institutional investors will likely put upward pressure onlong-end yields. 2.IGBs. Bond curve should flatten as significantly reduced back-end supplymeets strong life insurance premium growth. We look for more signs ofnormalization in FX market liquidity to enter onshore FX-hedged IGB 30Y.3.IndoGBs. Institutional demand has weakened, necessitating increased BIactivity, reliance on private placements, and government measures.Supply meanwhile is likely to remain heavy for the rest of the year.4.KTBs. FTSE WGBI flows have started, with flows so far matching our ex-ante expectations. Supply picture, meanwhile, could turn incrementallymore supportive. We remain long KTB 10Y, FX hedged.5.MGS/MGII. Issuance is off to an uncharacteristically slow start, but shouldaccelerate around large maturities in July, September and November.6.RPGBs. We note reduced supply for longer tenors with more at the belly,possibly in response to declining demand from tax-exempt institutions – asthe market awaits GBI-EM inclusion confirmation.7.SGS. Reverse asset swap has become more attractive to Singapore-basedinvestors, which could prompt Lifers to tactically increase FX-hedged USTallocations – driving SGS yields upwards.8.ThaiGBs. Demand has become even more skewed towards banks as GPFand SSF diversify their investment assets away from local governmentbonds. We remain long ThaiGB 10Y, FX hedged, fading elevated term-premium and expectations of BoT hikes. Vaninder Singh, CFAMacro Strategist+65-6423 8947 Perry KojodjojoStrategist+852-2203 6153 Sameer GoelMacro Strategist+65-642-36973 Bryant XuStrategist+65-6423 5558 China Supply. The accelerated issuance pace seen in Q1 is set to persist, and likelyincrease, into the second quarter. nLocal Government Bonds (LGBs). The first quarter's momentum wasdriven primarily by robust LGB issuance, particularly special LGBs. Localgovernments issued 34% of their targeted net LGB total in Q1, well abovethe 27% 3Y average for the same period. Historically, net LGB issuancereaches approximately 60% of the annual quota by the end of June. Giventhe challenging global economic backdrop, this pace could acceleratefurther in Q2. nCentral Government Bonds (CGBs). Following the passage of the fiscalbudget in March, we expect CGB issuance to pick up pace to supporttargeted fiscal programs, such as the consumer "trade-in" initiative. This iscorroborated by the MoF Q2 2026 issuance schedule, which plans for 20regular CGB auctions (including ultra-long tenors), an increase from 17 inQ2 2025. Assuming auction sizes are similar to Q1, we estimate total CGBsupply (excluding savings bonds) will be approximately RMB3.2tn in Q2, upfrom RMB2.9tn in Q1. Furthermore, while the timetable for the special sovereign CGB issuance has notbeen disclosed. Historical patterns suggest a potential start in late April or earlyMay, which would add another significant layer of supply to the market. Demand. The available data from January and February indicates that absorptionfrom key investor segments remains weak. This is a direct consequence ofregulatory shifts in 2025 aimed at bolstering the equity market. nLifers.A January 2025 directive mandated that major state-owned insurersallocate 30% of new annual premiums to A-shares. This was reinforced bysubsequentmeasuresfromtheNationalFinancialRegulatoryAdministration (NFRA) that raised the equity investment cap and loosenedcapital requirements for long-term stock holdings. nMutual Funds. In 2025, authorities guided mutual funds to reduce fees forequity products to incentivize flows away from bond funds, creating astructural preference for equity accumulation. Looking ahead, we expect demand to remain soft due to several factors; nA continued, gradual recovery in inflation.nSubdued demand from life insurers due to the new equity allocationmandates.nThe upcoming maturity of long-term bank deposits, which will reducebanks' need to purchase long-dated bonds for asset-liability management. The confluence of intensified regular issuance and the impending roll-out of specialsovereign bonds will likely exacerbate the demand-supply imbalance in the nearterm. This points to potentialupward pressure on long-end CGB yields. The primary risk to this view would be a significant deterioration in marketsentiment. Should the Chinese equity market continue to underperform—perhapsdue to a protracted conflict in the Middle East or worsening domestic growthdynamics—aflight-to-safety could reignite demand for government bonds,temporarily counteracting the supply pressure. 10 April 2026Asia Macro Strategy Notes India nThe RBI has released the H1 2026-27 IGB supply calendar last week. Whilethe issuance – at ~51% of projected full-year supply – is in line with historicalaverag