债券供需监测

1.IGBs. RBI's attempt to enforce transmission to the bond curve, alongsidepossibly better sentiment from a trade deal, keep us comfortable with long- 2.IndoGBs. Latest supply outcomes suggest pre-funding for 2026 may belimited to just ~10tn, as continuing demand from banks and mutual funds Vaninder Singh, CFAMacro Strategist 3.KTBs. KTB curve should be well supported by the combination of; (1) lowernet KTB supply ahead; (2) potential pick up in banks' demand; and (3) Perry KojodjojoStrategist 4.MGS/MGII. Continuing elevated corporate supply, alongside BNM likelynot needing to cut again, suggests a steeper curve ahead. Sameer GoelMacro Strategist 5.RPGBs.Foreign positioning has built-up further in Q3; but limited Q4supply keeps us constructive. 6.SGS. 2026 net and gross issuance is expected to increase, but flushedliquidity conditions and a lack of supply for the rest of the year is likely to 7.ThaiGBs. Near-term pressure for further curve steepening should ease asPDMO has redistributed supply, but any hint of end-of-cycle by the BoT in India nRBI's recent decision to reject bids for the 7Y auction suggests themonetary authority is uncomfortable with the limited pass-through of itsrate cuts to the bond curve. nWhile durable liquidity remains comfortably in surplus – and CRR cuts on1 and 29 Nov – will help ameliorate frictional tightness, wewould not ruleout the possibilty of OMO buying in the coming weeksif the transmission nMeanwhile, reports suggesting aUS-India trade deal may be forthcomingin the coming weeks is likely to help improve sentimenton Indian assets.Indeed, three inter-linked outcomes can be traced back to the July periodwhen relations initially soured; (1) pressure on the rupee, necessitating surrounding the need for increased fiscal spending resulting in a steepercurve; and (3) we believe, the central bank's reticence to ease in October While supply run-rate is lagging past years, we are not yet concerned as the drift isminimal. On the whole, we remaincomfortable staying long IGB-10Y, FXunhedged, with (1) the central bank providing a cap on yields; and (2) all of the bad Indonesia Supply We estimate pre-funding for 2026 will stand at just ~10tnif the DMO does; (1) noadditional external or retail financing over the rest of the year; and (2) does not step nDomestic issuance run rate stands at ~90% as of end-October (816tn) forthe IDR 905tn funding needs for 2025 (excluding pre-funding done in 2024).Based on the average bond issuance from the last three auctions, thefull-year gross domestic issuance is estimated to reach 923tn. This is lower than our previous estimates of closer to 940-950tn, as recentauctions have seen a higher share of bills issuance. For instance , the mostrecent conventional auction saw 7tn issued in bills out of the total issuanceof 28tn, while the previous two Sukuk auctions saw 2.5tn issued in bills out nMeanwhile, gross external issuance stands at 168tn in 2025 after the USD,EUR and CNH issuances in October. nGross SBN funding stands at 1070tn ytd (= 816tn domestic + 168tnexternal + 86tn pre-funding) against a full year estimated need of 1170tn (585tn net SBN + 585tn in maturities after excluding 103.6tn of burden-sharing bonds) based on the last available APBN document (currently being Demand Demand from local players has picked up, providing support for IndoGBs amidst a Demand from mutual funds saw 17.5% growth in Octoberafter lacklusteroutcomes over the last two years (Figure 2). nBI has continued to reduce OMO absorptioneven as SRBI rundown hasslowed to ~1tn per week in October; (1) RR absorption rates have been inthe 20-50% range since mid-September, with BI absorbing only 33% of bidsin the latest 7D RR auction (Figure 1). This is a significant change from 100% nIndeed, bank demand has picked up further in October(Figure 3).Interestingly, the 12M SRBI yield has fallen to 4.67% and has been belowthe policy rate (of 4.75%) for three weeks at the time of writing. With the Source : Deutsche Bank, CEIC, BI instead. However, foreigners have been net bond sellerssince the beginning ofSeptember, with their net absorption of new supply ytd back to flat as of 3 This demand composition, which remains more banks-heavy, suggestsfront-endshould see a renewed rally in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, higher mutual fund Korea nUpcoming KTB Supply.The MoF has planned to issue KRW 15tn inNovember. Considering 82.8% of the 2025 gross KTB issuance has beencompleted (as of October) and taking into account the expected issuance nPotential pickup in banks’ KTB purchase amidst weak loan growth. Afterthe recent string of tightening in mortgage rules, we have seen furtherslowdown in loan growth. This is likely to result in higher demand frombanks. Banks' buying has been somewhat slow in H1 vs. their overall share nSeasonality suggests lifers' demand should step up towards year-end.Over the past month, the back end of the KTB curve has underperformed;as such, 1