几个月来，首席财务官们一直担心地缘政治的影响（英）

about geopolitical impactsfor months To cope with uncertainty, surveyed CFOs have been doubling down onperformance and building cash and liquidity buffers. by Christian Grubewith Fiona Kasperk and Judith Kähler Geopolitical uncertaintyis rising—but so is CFOs’ awareness of and responsiveness to it. InMcKinsey’s latest CFO Pulse Survey,1conducted in late 2025, finance leaders identifygeopolitical issues as one of the biggest risks to their company’s growth, expressing moreconcern than they did ina survey conducted in early 2025. The recent conflict in the MiddleEast has proven them right, particularly as oil prices and other ramifications swell. Despite concerns over the challenges they faced when the survey was conducted last year anda presentiment of further disruption, CFOs also report a more optimistic view of industry growththan they did in early 2025. Nearly nine in ten expect their industries’ growth rates to be similarto or better than they were over the past 12 months, and almost two-thirds anticipate highercompany investment levels over the next year (across capital expenditures, R&D, and marketing)(Exhibit 1). Regionally, respondents in Asia–Pacific are the most upbeat on industry growth,followed by those in North America, while respondents in Europe have more neutralexpectations. Despite these differences in sentiment, investment intent remains strong acrossregions. Exhibit1 CFOs may be upbeat about growth, but they’re keeping a close eye on performance and near-term results. Respondents say their top functional priorities for the next 12 months are strategicplanning and managing operational value drivers/KPIs (Exhibit 2). These rank well ahead ofother priorities: In the earlier 2025 survey, half of respondents chose “long-term planning andresource allocation” as a top priority, which is now prioritized by 28 percent of respondents. Thischange suggests that respondents are focused on securing short-term company value ratherthan making long-term strategic decisions. Short-term focus is also illustrated by a shift inpriorities over the past 12 months: Compared with the previous survey, respondents report thatthey have spent less time on organizational transformation and cost and productivitymanagement and more on strategic leadership and performance management. Exhibit2 CFOs are concerned about external risks Geopolitical instability has become an even greater concern for CFO respondents than it hasover the past three years. In this survey, 37 percent identify geopolitical instability and/orconflicts, and 32 percent cite changes in trade policy and/or relationships as the biggest risks totheir companies’ growth over the next 12 months. A large number of respondents also say theirtop concerns include inflation (31 percent) and weak demand (29 percent). More than a quarterof respondents list technology disruption or cyber risk as top potential risks (Exhibit 3). Exhibit 3 The survey responses indicate that CFOs see risks across the full value chain: from marketaccess and pricing (via tariffs and regulatory constraints), to cost and supply continuity (via tradebarriers and logistics disruption), to investment choices (via incentives and restrictions), totechnology strategy (via IP and cybersecurity controls). Taken together, these external pressures are likely compelling CFOs to control what they can byclosely tracking performance, stress testing their plans, and ensuring their companies can adjustwithout abandoning long-term strategies. Tariffs and industrial policy are among top concerns When asked which geopolitical or macro topics they will pay the most attention to over thenext 12 months, more than 60 percent of respondents name “tariffs and other trade barriers”(Exhibit 4). There is regional variety among top CFO preoccupations. In North America, three-quarters ofrespondents say they will pay most attention to tariffs and other trade barriers. In Europe andAsia–Pacific, domestic industrial policies are top of mind. CFOs in North America and Europeinclude technology, IP, and cybersecurity controls among their top three concerns, while fewerthan one in ten Asia–Pacific CFOs cite this as a leading area of attention. Responses also vary by company characteristics. Respondents at small-cap companies aremore likely than peers at larger firms to pay attention to technology, IP, and cybersecuritycontrols as well as domestic environmental, labor, and immigration policies. Respondents atpublic companies report planning to pay significantly greater attention to tariffs and tradebarriers than those at private companies, who cite technology, IP, and cybersecurity controls astop focus areas. Notably, CFOs place comparatively less emphasis on multilateral cooperation and alliances,suggesting that they perceive direct policy instruments to have a bigger impact on theirbusinesses. How CFOs are responding to uncertainty Across regions and company sizes, nearly two-thirds of CFO respondents repo