中东军事升级：对阿拉伯国家地区的经济和社会影响（英）2026

ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPLICATIONSFOR THE ARAB STATES REGIONMILITARY ESCALATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST: 31 MARCH 2026 Contents 2.1 Maritime and Energy Supply Disruptions.......................................................................................................................................92.2 Aviation, Mobility, and Supply Chain Disruptions..................................................................................................................... 102.3 Market Reactions and Economic Spillovers ................................................................................................................................112.4 Monetary and Financial Impact........................................................................................................................................................112.5 Fiscal Impact ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 12 3Pressures on Social and Humanitarian Systems Across the Arab States region............................................................13 3.1 Health Systems and Humanitarian Supply Chains.....................................................................................................................133.2 Environmental and Water Impacts Across Arab Countries....................................................................................................143.3 Pressures on Regional Food Security ..........................................................................................................................................143.4 Social and Economic Pressures in the Gulf ............................................................................................................................... 153.5 Impacts on Education........................................................................................................................................................................ 153.6 Displacement and Humanitarian Pressures............................................................................................................................... 163.7 Displacement Dynamics Among Syrian Refugees in Lebanon ............................................................................................17 4Quantification of Economic and Social Implications...................................................................................................................18 4.1 Macroeconomic Impacts ................................................................................................................................................................... 194.2 Unemployment Impacts .................................................................................................................................................................. 204.3 Fiscal Impact ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 224.4 Human Development Impacts....................................................................................................................................................... 224.5 Poverty Impacts.................................................................................................................................................................................. 24 The GTAP 12 Global Database ....................................................................................................................................................... 28The MIRAGE Global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model ................................................................................. 28The Modelling of the Military Escalation in the Middle East shock..................................................................................... 29The Estimation of People pushed into Unemployment.......................................................................................................... 30Human Development Estimations ...................................................................................................................................................31Poverty Estimation .............................................................................................................................................................................. 32 UNDP is the leading United Nations organization fighting to end the injustice of poverty, inequality, and climate change.Working with our broad network of experts and partners in 170 countries, we help nations to build integrated, lastingsolutions for people and planet. Learn more at undp.org or follow at @UNDP. The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the UnitedNations, including UN