中东军事升级：全球发展的逆转、政策应对选择（英）2026

REVERSALS IN GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT,POLICY RESPONSE OPTIONS 13 APRIL 2026 Contents Executive Summary......................................................................................................31Global context: moving from acute to enduring effects...............................................41.1 Taking stock of acute effects..............................................................................................52Enduring e.ects: Growth, energy and food inflation impacts on poverty......................62.1. Net energy importers: Concentrated vulnerability.............................................................72.2. Global spillovers: Broad-based reversals........................................................................102.3. Fiscal implications and multiplier eBects.......................................................................103Asymmetric policy responses..................................................................................123.1 Country-level policy responses.......................................................................................133.2 Policy options to avoid reversals.....................................................................................16Conclusion.................................................................................................................17Annex A – Simulation results and assumptions.............................................................18Annex B – Country Vulnerability Dashboard..................................................................23 This policy brief was prepared by George Gray Molina (george.gray.molina@undp.org),Chief Economistat theUNDP Bureau for Policy and ProgramSupport(BPPS), Lars Jensen (lars.jensen@undp.org),Senior EconomistattheUNDPBureau for Policy and Program Support(BPPS), and Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez(eduardo.ortizj@kcl.ac.uk),SeniorEconomicResearchAdvisor andLecturer in Development Economics at King’sCollege London. This brief has benefited immensely frommacroeconomicinputs by Mohamed Bchir,SeniorStrategic Initiatives Adviser at UNDP Regional Bureau for Arab States (RBAS),andhelpful commentsbyPhilip Schellekens, Chief Economist at the UNDP Regional Bureau for Asia-Pacific (RBAP),RaymondGilpin,ChiefEconomist andHead of Strategy at the UNDP Regional Bureau for Africa(RBA), RaquelLagunas,Headof Gender Equalityat the UNDP Bureau of Policy and Program Support,andSebnemSahin,ChiefEconomist at the UNDPRegional Bureau for Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States(RBEC). UNDP is the leading United Nations organization fighting to end the injustice of poverty, inequality, and climatechange. Working with our broad network of experts and partners in 170 countries, we help nations to buildintegrated, lasting solutions for people and planet. Learn more at undp.org or follow at @UNDP. The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of theUnited Nations, including UNDP, or the UN Member States. Executive Summary This policy brief builds on UNDP assessments of the impact of the military escalation in theMiddle East on Iran, the Arab States region, Africa and Asia. As the conflict unfolds,development reversals will be felt unevenly around the globe, with as many as 32.5 millionpeople falling into poverty globally by a triple shock of energy affordability and availability,food price increases, and GDP downturns. The analysis also presents results for a group of37 net energy importing countries - in the Gulf region, Africa, Asia and Small IslandDeveloping States - highlighting their unique and overlapping vulnerabilities. While advanced economies are better able to mitigate the socio-economic impacts of theshock, many developing countries are not, due to severe fiscal and financial constraints. Inaddition to interim measures taken by some developing countries in recent weeks -including changing work schedules, extending energy subsidies, changing VAT and taxpolicy on fossil fuels, and releasing energy reserves - fiscally constrained economies canconsider tailored policy options, including: (a)Targeted and temporary cash transfers that protect poor and vulnerable householdsare the preferred policy response for fiscally constrained countries. Equivalent cashtransfers needed to neutralize shocks are estimated to be in the order of $6 billion to cover32.5 million people who may fall under the upper middle-income country poverty line. (b)Second best interventions include temporary subsidies or vouchers for minimum“consumption blocks” of electricity or cooking gas. These are designed to buffer the pass-through effects of higher energy costs to domestic electricity and liquid gas for poor andvulnerable households. Consumption blocks work best where comprehensive socialregistries are absent or administrative capabilities to reach poor and vulnerable householdsare weak. (c)Avoid blanket energy subsidies (on gasoline, diesel or LNG)