资本管制是否会减缓最后一英里的跨境支付？初步证据（英）

Do Capital Controls SlowCross-Border Paymentsin the Last Mile?Preliminary Evidence Alisa DiCaprio, Marcello Miccoli, Philip Montalvao, AndrewUsher, and Jeanne Verrier WP/26/68 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the authorsand are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate.Prepared by staff of the IMF and Swift For the IMF:The views, findings, interpretations, and conclusion expressed in this paper arethose of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,IMF management, or any other entity mentioned therein. For Swift:The views, findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this article are thoseof the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of Swift. The information is provided forresearch and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, legal, or otherprofessional advice. Because financial institutions have multiple means to exchange informationabout their financial transactions, any statistics on Swift financial flows do not represent completemarket or industry statistics. Swift does not make any representations or warranties regarding theaccuracy, completeness, or reliability of the data or analysis contained herein, and they accept noliability for any loss arising from reliance on this article. 2026APR IMF Working Paper Monetary and Capital Markets Department Do Capital Controls Slow Cross-Border Payments in the Last Mile? Preliminary Evidence Prepared byAlisa DiCaprio, Marcello Miccoli, Philip Montalvao, Andrew Usher,andJeanne Verrier** April2026 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.Prepared by staff of the IMF and Swift For the IMF:The views, findings, interpretations, and conclusion expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, IMF management, or any other entity mentioned therein.For Swift:The views, findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily representthe views of Swift. The information is provided for research and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, legal, orother professional advice. Because financial institutions have multiple means to exchange information about their financial transactions, anystatistics on Swift financial flows do not represent complete market or industry statistics. Swift does not make any representations or warrantiesregarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the data or analysis contained herein, and they accept no liability for any loss arising fromreliance on this article. ABSTRACT:Cross-border payments face multiple challenges that may result in slow transaction speed,particularly at the beneficiary leg, which constitutes the last mile of the payment process. This paper measureswhether capital controls are associated with slower cross-border payments, using two novel cross-countrydatasets derived from microeconomic data. While it does not establish causality, preliminary evidence suggeststhat the effect is statistically significant and sizeable. A one-standard-deviation increase in the FinancialAccount Restriction Index, our measure of capital controls, is associated with a delay of 4 to 8 hours at thebeneficiary leg. The effect is stronger in Emerging and Developing Economies, and heterogeneous acrossgeographic regions. Thispaperisalsoavailable as aSwift publication Alisa DiCaprio, Marcello Miccoli, Philip Montalvao, Andrew Usher, and Jeanne Verrier. 2026.“Do CapitalControls Slow Cross-Border Payments in the Last Mile? Preliminary Evidence”, Swift whitepaper, La Hulpe,Belgium Do Capital Controls Slow Cross-Border Payments in the Last Mile?Preliminary Evidence Prepared byAlisa DiCaprio, Marcello Miccoli, Philip Montalvao, AndrewUsher,andJeanne Verrier I.Introduction Efficient cross-border payments are foundational to global economic activity. Financial institutions, corporates,and individuals rely on payments to move value across borders.At the same time,somecountries implementcontrolsoncapitalinflowsor outflows—withvariousmacroeconomic objectivessuch as stabilizingmarkets incase ofsudden outflows—whichcanimpedecross-border payments.In the IMF’s Institutional View on theLiberalization and Management of Capital Flows,these capital controls are a type of capital flow managementmeasures (CFMs)thatareconsideredappropriate only under certain circumstances and only if they do notsubstitute for warranted macroeconomic adjustment (IMF 2012, 2022).While such measures may be effectivein achievingtheir policyobjectives, they may also influence the timeliness of payments. The speed of cross-border paymentshasbeen measured and tracked by theFinancial Stability Board (FSB)since 2020,when the G20 endorsed a targetto complete75percentof cross-border paymentswithin one hour.