激励资本管制：来自资本流动限制新措施的证据（英）

Motivating CapitalControls: Evidence fromNew Measures of CapitalFlow Restrictions Chikako Baba, Ricardo Cervantes, Salim M. Darbar, AnnamariaKokenyne, and Viktoriya V. Zotova WP/26/16 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2026JAN IMF Working Paper Monetary and Capital Markets Department Motivating Capital Controls: Evidence from New Measures of Capital Flow RestrictionsPrepared by Chikako Baba, Ricardo Cervantes, Salim M. Darbar, Annamaria Kokenyne, and Viktoriya V.Zotova* Authorized for distribution by Tjoervi OlafssonJanuary 2026 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:Countries implement and liberalize capital controls opportunistically. To show this point, thispaper introduces two novel indices—the Financial Account Restrictiveness Index (FARI) and the AREAERChange Index (ACI)—to measure and track capital flow restrictions across 190 countries quarterly from 1999 to2022. FARI quantifies the restrictiveness of capital accounts, while ACI captures policy changes over time.These indices offer a comprehensive, objective, and high-frequency toolset to analyze capital account policiesand their evolution over the past two decades. Using the two indices, the paper highlights global liberalizationtrends, regional differences, and the cyclical use of capital controls in response to macroeconomic conditionsand crises. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Baba, Chikako, Ricardo Cervantes, Salim M. Darbar, Annamaria Kokenyne, andViktoriya V. Zotova. 2026. “Motivating Capital Controls: Evidence from New Measures of Capital FlowRestrictions.” IMF Working Paper26/16. Motivating Capital Controls:Evidence from New Measures ofCapital Flow Restrictions Prepared by Chikako Baba, Ricardo Cervantes, Salim M. Darbar,Annamaria Kokenyne, and Viktoriya V. Zotova Contents I.Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................3II.Constructing AREAER indices.............................................................................................................51.AREAER Financial Account Restrictiveness Index.............................................................................52.AREAER Change Index......................................................................................................................9III.Stylized Facts about Capital Account Restrictions..........................................................................101.Aggregate trends ..............................................................................................................................102.Regional and country level trends.....................................................................................................173.Factors related to the use of restrictions...........................................................................................22IV.Empirical Analysis of Motivations for Capital Account Restrictions .............................................241.Long term determinants ....................................................................................................................242.Business and financial cycle determinants .......................................................................................293.Identification and robustness ............................................................................................................35V.Conclusion ...........................................................................................................................................36References.........................................................................................................................................................38Annex I. Data sources and description...........................................................................................................41Annex II. Covered economies ..........................................................................................................................42Annex III. Compilation of the Indices ..............................................................................................................43Annex IV. Comparison to Existing Indices .....................................................................................................57 I.Introduction Capital controls have long been part of the policy toolkit to manage capital flows to achieve various policyobjectives. Many countries