美元化浪潮：来自综合国际债券数据库的新证据（英）

Dollarisation waves: new evidencefrom a comprehensiveinternational bond database by Swapan-Kumar Pradhan, Eswar Prasad, Előd Takátsand Judit Temesvary Monetary and Economic Department January 2026 JEL classification: F3, F41, G15 Keywords:international debt securities,currencydenomination, nationality and residence basis, reserve The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do notnecessarily reflect the views of the BIS or its member central banks. This publication is available on the BIS website(www.bis.org). ©Bank for International Settlements 2026. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be Dollarisation waves: new evidence from a Swapan-Kumar Pradhan, Eswar Prasad, Előd Takáts and Judit Temesvary122 January 2026 Abstract We investigate how the US dollar’s prominence in the denomination of internationaldebt securities has evolved in recent decades, using a comprehensive global data setwith far more extensive coverage than data sets used in prior literature. We find nomonotonic dollarisation or de-dollarisation trend; instead, the dollar’s share exhibitsa wavelike pattern. We document three dollarisation waves since the 1960s. The last Keywords:international debt securities,currency denomination,nationality andresidence basis, reserve currencies, banks, non-bank financial institutions, non- JEL classification: F3, F41, G15 1. Introduction The roles of different currencies in the post-Bretton Woods international monetarysystem have been the subject of extensive research, with particular emphasis on thesupremacyof the US dollar.The creation of the euro in 1999 and theinternationalisation of the Chinese renminbi, starting in 2010, were seen as posingthreats to the dollar’s dominance. These threats appear to have faded, and a 1Pradhan and Takáts are with the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), and Takáts is also with theLondon School of Economics and Political Science (LSE). Prasad is with Cornell University, theBrookings Institution and the NBER. Temesvary is with the Federal Reserve Board. The viewsexpressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of any of theinstitutions the authors are affiliated with. We thank seminar participants at the BIS, the FederalReserve Board, The Euro and Europe’s Next Stage Workshop at the LSE, and Treasury Club Conferenceat Corvinus University of Budapest for valuable comments. We are grateful to Ricardo Correa, Ruth therole of the dollar in a key aspect of international finance:the currency We examine the role of the dollar in IDS issuance using a comprehensivedatabase compiled by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).2IDS are definedas bonds listed in, registered in or following the legal covenants of financial marketsoutside the country in which the issuer resides. The stock of outstanding IDS rosefrom $2 billion in 1970 to $30 trillion at the end of 2024, which is about $6 trillionmore than the outstanding cross-border loans of banks in BIS reporting countries.This highlights the importance of IDS in global finance.3The currency denomination We find that the dollar’s dominance waxed and waned in a wavelike pattern since2000 rather than increasing or decreasing monotonically. The share of the dollar inoutstanding stocks of IDS fell from about 60% in the early 2000s to about 43% in2008, before surging back to about 60% in the latter half of the 2010s, excludingeuro-denominated IDS issuance within the -euro area .4This pattern is preserved In a seminal paper that is most closely related to our work, Maggiori et al (2020)use data on institutional investors’ portfolios to document key stylised facts. They findthat the dollar’s share of global cross-border holdings of corporate debt was relativelystable from 2005 to 2008 but then increased sharply over the subsequent decade.This period of apparent dollarisation leads the authors to conclude:“The US dollarappears today to be the world’s only international currency. As recently as 10 years ago, Furthermore, we observe a “euro moment” as the share of the euro roseconsiderably after its creation in 2000. Strikingly, the issuance of euro-denominated 2The BIS publishes two different sets of IDS data: (1) data reported by central banks; and (2) datacompiled by the BIS from commercial data providers. The IDS data reported by central banks provideaggregate-level information, whereas the BIS-compiled IDS data that we use in this paper are moregranular (security-level) and include additional details. The BIS-compiled data also offer global coverage and adhere to the methodology agreed upon by international organisations, as outlined in theHandbook on securities statistics(BIS (2015)).3The outstanding $30 trillion IDS for end-2024 includes €6 trillion in outstanding stocks of euro- IDS came close to dollar-denominated new issuance in the few years preceding theGreat Financial Crisis (GFC). The share of the euro has fallen off since the GFC; y