加快摩洛哥公共基础设施投资的宏观经济影响（英）

Macroeconomic Impact ofAccelerating PublicInfrastructureInvestments in Morocco Marzie Taheri Sanjani, Kassia Antoine, and Pedro Rodriguez SIP/2026/026 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed on March 5, 2026. This paper is alsopublished separately as IMF Country Report No 26/73. 2026APR IMF Selected Issues Paper Middle East and Central Asia Department Macroeconomic Impact of Accelerating Public Infrastructure Investments in MoroccoPrepared by Marzie Taheri Sanjani, Kassia Antoine, and Pedro Rodriguez* Authorized for distribution by Laura Jaramillo MayorApril 2026 IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on March 5, 2026. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No. 27/73. ABSTRACT:This paper studies Morocco’s public infrastructure investment scale-up in 2024–2030, amountingto around 12 percent of 2024 GDP. Empirical evidence shows that improvements in infrastructure quantity andquality have contributed importantly to Morocco’s productivity growth in recent decades. Model simulationssuggest that the planned investment increase would raise productivity and long-run real GDP, though gains aredampened by high import leakages and crowding out of private investment. Higher investment efficiency raisegrowth without increasing debt, while cost overruns worsen debt dynamics without additional output gains. Theanalysis highlights the importance of efficient public investment management and careful fiscal riskmanagement. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Taheri Sanjani, Marzie, Antoine, Kassia and Rodriguez, Pedro. 2026.“Macroeconomic Impact of Accelerating Public Infrastructure Investments in Morocco.” IMF Selected IssuesPaper (SIP/26/026), Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund. SELECTED ISSUES PAPERS Macroeconomic Impact ofAccelerating Public InfrastructureInvestments in Morocco Morocco Prepared by Marzie Taheri Sanjani, Kassia Antoine, and Pedro Rodriguez MOROCCO SELECTED ISSUES ApprovedByMiddle East andCentral AsiaDepartment Prepared ByMarzie Taheri Sanjani, Kassia Antoine (bothMCD), Pedro Rodriguez (RES). CONTENTS MACROECONOMIC IMPACT OF ACCELERATING PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTUREINVESTMENTS_____________________________________________________________________3 A. Introduction _____________________________________________________________________3B. Past Contributions of Infrastructure to Morocco’s Productivity Growth __________3C. Model Analysis of Morocco’s Investment Program 2024–2030 __________________9D. Analytical Framework: IMF FSGM _______________________________________________10E. Scenario Design_________________________________________________________________11F. Baseline Scenario Results _______________________________________________________13G. Alternative Scenarios Results ___________________________________________________13H. Key Takeaways of the Model Analysis __________________________________________16I. Conclusion_______________________________________________________________________17 FIGURES 1. Infrastructure Spending Efficiency Gap___________________________________________52. Benchmarking: Investment in Infrastructure, 1991–2023 _________________________63. Contribution of Infrastructure Quantity and Quality to Productivity Growth _____84. Public Investment in Connectivity and Tourism Infrastructure 2024–2030 _______95. Structure of MCDMOD: The FSGM-Based_______________________________________106. Macroeconomic Impact of Morocco’s Infrastructure Investment Program:Baseline and Stress-Test Scenarios ________________________________________________147. Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Financing the Regions and Treasury Share ______158. Long-Term Trade-Offs Under FSGM Scenarios: Growth, Investment, and DebtImpacts of Morocco’s Infrastructure Plan__________________________________________16 TABLES 1. Infrastructure and Growth – 5-year averages___________________________________________________82. Selected FSGM Calibration Parameters________________________________________________________11 APPENDIX I. List of Indicators _______________________________________________________________________________18 References_______________________________________________________________________________________19 MACROECONOMIC IMPACT OF ACCELERATING PUBLICINFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS1 Morocco is scaling up investment infrastructure spending in 2024-2030 for an estimated 11.9 percentof 2024 GDP. Empirical results show that improvements in infrastructure quantity and quality havebeen important contributors to Morocco’s productivity growth in recent decades and underscores thepotential gains from further investment. Model simulations suggest that the planned investmentspendin