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加快摩洛哥公共基础设施投资的宏观经济影响

2026-04-07 国际货币基金组织 Silent

Morocco is increasing its public infrastructure investment to around 12 percent of 2024 GDP between 2024 and 2030. Empirical evidence indicates that improvements in infrastructure quantity and quality have significantly contributed to Morocco's productivity growth in recent decades, with both factors accounting for roughly one-fifth of productivity gains since 2005.

Past infrastructure outcomes show notable progress in electricity generation, telecommunications, and port capacity, though challenges remain in road quality and energy security. The efficiency of investment translation into results is also highlighted as a key dimension, with the public spending efficiency gap reflecting the difference between actual and potential outcomes.

Model simulations using the IMF's FSGM suggest that the planned investment increase would boost productivity and long-run real GDP, with gains driven by productivity spillovers from accumulated public capital. Under the baseline scenario, real GDP is projected to be 3 percent higher in the long run, supported by higher total factor productivity. However, near-term private investment is initially subdued due to crowding out, recovering over the medium term as productivity gains materialize.

The current account deficit widens in the short term due to high import leakage in the infrastructure program, narrowing after the construction phase ends. Alternative scenarios highlight the critical role of public infrastructure spending efficiency: a 20 percent efficiency gain (Scenario B) raises long-run GDP by 3.5–4 percent, while a 20 percent shortfall (Scenario C) limits gains to 2.0–2.5 percent. Cost overruns (Scenario D) erode fiscal space without significant growth benefits, while tax financing (Scenario E) reduces debt but temporarily compresses short-term demand.

Key takeaways emphasize the importance of structural factors, such as mitigating import leakages and crowding out, enhancing public sector investment efficiency, preventing cost overruns, ensuring infrastructure maintenance, and monitoring public debt. The study concludes that Morocco's infrastructure scale-up offers long-term growth potential, contingent on efficient implementation and fiscal discipline.

Macroeconomic Impact ofAccelerating Public Marzie Taheri Sanjani, Kassia Antoine, and Pedro Rodriguez SIP/2026/026 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available at 2026APR IMF Selected Issues Paper Middle East and Central Asia Department Macroeconomic Impact of Accelerating Public Infrastructure Investments in MoroccoPrepared by Marzie Taheri Sanjani, Kassia Antoine, and Pedro Rodriguez* Authorized for distribution by Laura Jaramillo Mayor IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it was ABSTRACT:This paper studies Morocco’s public infrastructure investment scale-up in 2024–2030, amountingto around 12 percent of 2024 GDP. Empirical evidence shows that improvements in infrastructure quantity andquality have contributed importantly to Morocco’s productivity growth in recent decades. Model simulationssuggest that the planned investment increase would raise productivity and long-run real GDP, though gains are RECOMMENDED CITATION:Taheri Sanjani, Marzie, Antoine, Kassia and Rodriguez, Pedro. 2026.“Macroeconomic Impact of Accelerating Public Infrastructure Investments in Morocco.” IMF Selected Issues SELECTED ISSUES PAPERS Macroeconomic Impact ofAccelerating Public Infrastructure Morocco Prepared by Marzie Taheri Sanjani, Kassia Antoine, and Pedro Rodriguez MOROCCO SELECTED ISSUES March 5, 2026 ApprovedByMiddle East and Prepared ByMarzie Taheri Sanjani, Kassia Antoine (bothMCD), Pedro Rodriguez (RES). CONTENTS MACROECONOMIC IMPACT OF ACCELERATING PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTUREINVESTMENTS_____________________________________________________________________3 A. Introduction _____________________________________________________________________3B. Past Contributions of Infrastructure to Morocco’s Productivity Growth __________3C. Model Analysis of Morocco’s Investment Program 2024–2030 __________________9D. Analytical Framework: IMF FSGM _______________________________________________10E. Scenario Design_________________________________________________________________11F. Baseline Scenario Results _______________________________________________________13 FIGURES 1. Infrastructure Spending Efficiency Gap___________________________________________52. Benchmarking: Investment in Infrastructure, 1991–2023 _________________________63. Contribution of Infrastructure Quantity and Quality to Productivity Growth _____84. Public Investment in Connectivity and Tourism Infrastructure 2024–2030 _______95. Structure of MCDMOD: The FSGM-Based_______________________________________106. Macroeconomic Impact of Morocco’s Infrastructure Investment Program:Baseline and Stress-Test Scenarios ________________________________________________147. Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Financing the Regions and Treasury Share ______15 MOROCCO TABLES 1. Infrastructure and Growth – 5-year averages___________________________________________________82. Selected FSGM Calibration Parameters________________________________________________________11 APPENDIX I. List of Indicators _______________________________________________________________________________18 References_______________________________________________________________________________________19 MACROECONOMIC IMPACT OF ACCELERATING PUBLIC Morocco is scaling up investment infrastructure spending in 2024-2030 for an estimated 11.9 percentof 2024 GDP. Empirical results show that improvements in infrastructure quantity and quality havebeen important contributors to Morocco’s productivity growth in recent decades and underscores thepotential gains from further investment. Model simulations suggest that the planned investment A.Introduction 1.Infrastructure has been central to Morocco’s development strategy, anchoring gains inproductivity, competitiveness, and integration.Since the mid-2000s, sustained public investmenthas expanded transport, energy, and digital infrastructure, supporting economic diversification andimproved productivity. The 2021 New Development Model emphasizes high-quality infrastructure to 2.This paper examines Morocco’s infrastructure strategy through the lens of growthpayoffs and fiscal risks.It begins by quantifying the historical contribution of infrastructure toproductivity growth using cross-country panel regressions, identifying which sectors have deliveredthe strongest returns. It then evaluates the macroeconomic implications of Morocco’s current B.Past Contributions of Infrastructure to Morocco’s Productivity Growth 3.Closing infrastructure gaps can play a pivotal role in fostering growth anddevelopment.Beyond its function as a complement to labor and non-infrastructure capital in the MOROCCO production process, infrastructure constitutes a distinctive form of capital. Infrastructure h

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