2026年第一季度预览：聚焦大宗商品

United States Autos & Auto Technology 1Q26 Preview: commodities in focus EdisonYu Research Analyst 1Q26earningsWeanticipateFordwill reportlargelyin-line1Q26results,amidthecompany'sprior +1-212-250-7263 commentarythat1Hwillfaceheaviercommoditiescostheadwindduetoimpactfrom a fire at a supplier's plant, with 1Q EBITflat sequentiallyfrom 4Q25and 2Qstartingtonormalize.Wemodel$1.2bnEBlTonacompanywidebasis,andbysegmentweprojectthe EBITforFordBlue,Ford Modele,andFordProtobe $633m,$446m,-$952m,and $1.45bn. Winnie DongResearch Analyst+1-212-250-5121 James Mulholland, CFAResearch Associate+1-212-250-6026 Downward revisionto2026outlookpossibleBackonits 4Q25 earningscall, Ford highlighted stabilityinaluminumsupplycosts for2H26as a positivefactor.However,followingFord's2026guidance,theMiddleEast crisis has significantly impactedaluminum and steel prices.Aluminum spotprices increased by13%QoQin1Q26and+11%YTDin2Q26,whilesteelspotpricesroseby+11%QoQin1Q26and+6%YTDin2Q26.Whilemostofthe1Hbuyshould belocked, the 2His much more exposed. Hence, weexpect that the highercosts relatedtoaluminumand steelwill steersomecostbucketstothehigherendof original ranges,puttingsome downward pressure onFord's2026EBIT($8bn-1Obn)andFCFoutlook($5bnto $6bn).As such,the companycould eitherlowerorpoint to the mid-to lower-end of its previously issued EBIT guidance.Net-net, wenowmodelconsolidatedEBITofs8.6bn,comparedtoourpriorestimateof$9.2bnand consensus at s8.7bn. Autos&Auto TechnologyFord Motor Managementchangescauseforconcern? officer,will departfromthe company nextmonth,withAlan Clarke nowleadingtheCA-basedadvanced EVdevelopmentteamthatwillcreateFord'sUEVplatform.Inaddition, Ford willformanew organizationthatintegratesFord's UEV platform withits global industrial system,together reporting to Kumar Galhotra.In ourview,thischange reflects rear-view mirroractions thatFord had alreadytakentowritedownEVassets as BEVmarketexpectations have changed dramaticallyrelativeto afewyears ago. But also, it appears that the company is attempting to integrate"SkunkWorks"technologyinto theglobalindustrialsystem,andviceversa,hopingtoreap efficiencygains across both Modele and Ford Blue.We wonderif this couldactuallyslow decision-making on a net basis, but execution remains tobe seen. Together with this announcement, the companyis targetingto refresh 80% ofits N.American portfolio (by volume) and 70% of its global portfolio by 2029, includingthe first vehicle on the UEV platform, a mid-sized pickup, and the next-gen F-150and SuperDuty.By2030,90%of Ford'svehicles should feature updated electrical Autos&Auto TechnologyFord Motor generationOTA capabilities.Whilethisfoundationenables the rolloutof BlueCruiseand the Ford Digital Experience, it's still possible that Ford may partner with a thirdparty on autonomous driving.Furthermore, by 2030 ~90% of Ford's globalnameplateswill offerelectrified powertrains,andwethinkitshybridstrategycouldbe particularly helpful vs. all-in on EVs. Together, the company is reiterating itstarget for 8% adjusted EBIT margin by 2029,which to us, appears more possiblewiththerecent EV write-down and a moreflexibleapproachtopowertrain. Fordmayfaceincrementalcommoditiesheadwindsthisyearvs.priorexpectations well point to the low-to-midpoint of the prior outlook during 1Q earnings. Lookingahead, Ford is looking to reintegrate EV and Ford Blue, and is taking a flexiblenotch execution, as the company has started to show cost improvements.Wemaintain our Hold rating, still based on 3.0x2026 EBITDAP and 6x Ford Credit. Appendix 1 *Other information available upon request ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyU.S.Regulators ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyNon-USRegulatorsandExplanatoryNotes.1.Withinthe_past year, Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s)has managed or co-managed a public offering forthis company,forwhichitreceivedfees.2.Deutsche Bank and/orits affiliate(s) mayactas a marketmakerorliquidityproviderin thefinancial instrumentsissuedbythiscompany7.DeutscheBankand/orits affiliate(s)hasreceived compensationfromthis companyfortheprovision of investmentbanking or financial advisory services within thepast year.8.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment bankingservices from this company in the next three months.14.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received compensation from this company within the past year for non-investmentbankingrelatedservices.15.This company has been a client of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. within the past year during which time it receivedinvestmentbankingservices.21.This company has been a client of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. within the past year, during which time it receivednon-investmentbankingsecurities-relatedservices. Important Disclosures Required by Non-U.S. Regulators Disclosures marked with an asterisk mayalso be required by at least one jurisdiction in addition to the United States.SeeImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyNon-USRegu