2026财年展望：中东不利因素未消除风险

EngineeringSoftware Geopolitical blind spots Johannes Schaller FY26 outlooks not de-risked for Middle-East headwinds Research Analyst+49-69-910-31731 While we normally conclude key takes from the last earnings season for majorEngineering Software companies in this note, it feels like living in a different worldsince the escalation of the Iran conflict. On the positive side, companies in ourcoveragehave relatively low direct exposure to the Middle-East.However,guidance across players is not de-risked for short-term headwinds from delayeddecision making amidst macro uncertainties. This increases the potential fordownside surprises, with March being the most important month in Q1 in terms ofdeal closings for most companies in our coverage. We see Dassault and Hexagonas being a tad more exposed to such scenarios, given their higher exposure to morecyclical/affected segments (auto, aerospace,...) and a lower share of recurringrevenues. As such, we remain selective, preferring Nemetschek, Autodesk, PTCand MuM (all Buy) over Dassault and Hexagon (both Hold). Nicolas HermsResearch Analyst+49-69-910-13052 Bhavin Shah, CFAResearch Analyst+1-212-250-6775 Nooshin Nejati Research Analyst+49-69-910-61797 Yusuf Jamal Research Associate Prefer Autodesk and Nemetschek in AEC/O Kunal GuptaResearch Associate Looking across players, FY26 guidance assumes further macro stabilization, withsome pockets of growth in certain sub-markets. Autodesk (9-10% underlying) andNemetschek (14-15% org cc) guide for healthy growth, and we view their core AECend-market as somewhat more resilient in the current macro environment. Bothplayers also benefit from a higher share of recurring revenues (>90%), limiting risksfor downside surprises to some extent. The same is true for PTC (95% recurring), butwith more risk to its 8.5% ARR guidance at midpoint (+/-1%) from a higher exposureto more cyclical end-markets, in our view. Dassault has already baked in someconservatism in its guidance (3-5% cc), but the Iran conflict adds another layer ofuncertainty and we believe its end-market exposure with a lower share of recurringrevenues and higher contribution from lumpy license sales could prove unfavorablein the current environment. Looking back at results - EMEA weaker, Americas mixed, APAC ex China solid Looking back at reporting season commentary, the end-market picture remainedmixed. For A&D, robust underlying trends suggest good growth in 2026 andbeyond. Comments around Manufacturing and Auto remain cautious, whileconstruction continues to enjoy positive momentum, helped by data center build-outsand Infrastructure spending.Regionally,EMEA remains weak aroundautomotive, while the Americas present a mixed picture and APAC remains solidbut with more caution on China, especially in construction. For Valuation and Risks, please refer topp.17-32. Deutsche Bank AG IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. Deutsche Bank doesand seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm mayhave a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a singlefactor in making their investment decision. 13 April 2026IT Software & ServicesEngineering Software Sector commentary: A&D robust, AEC improving further,Manufacturing mixed Aerospace and Defense (A&D): Solid underlying trends remain supportive, Iranconflict could impact demand from aerospace Looking back at Q4 results commentary, the A&D segment remained a bright spot,with resilient demand amid robust underlying trends and intensifying globalgeopolitical tensions. Positive commentary across the sector suggests strongperformance in 2026 and beyond. The Iran conflict however presents a risk todemand from commercial aerospace, that needs to be monitored, in our view.Dassault highlighted a growing share of A&D in the pipeline (16-17% this yearversus 12% last year), with positive momentum in Defence globally, including NewSpace, with developments around drones, low orbit satellites, and more. Nosignificant growth in Defence is included in the guidance, implying potential forupside. Similarly, Hexagon highlighted A&D as a standout performer, with stronggrowth across all key markets in the Americas and EMEA. MuM noticed a pick-upin its CAM business with higher demand from the Defence sector. Manufacturing: Overhang from macro uncertainties remains Manufacturing remains mixed amidst macro uncertainties, and we note that theIran conflict adds another layer of uncertainty, potentially impacting customerdecision makings in March. Dassault sounded cautious on general manufacturing,with macro volatility affecting customer demand and deal timing. Hexagonreported good growth in general manufacturing in China and the US, while EMEAremains muted. Electronics was strong in China, the most important market, butweaker elsewhere. Autodesk noted p