1Q26预览：期待由食品配送损失减少和核心JDR推动的乐观结果
by food delivery loss reductionand core JDR 1Q26 preview: expecting upbeat results drivenby food delivery loss reduction and core JDR Target PriceUp/DownsideCurrent Price For 1Q26E, we anticipate JD.com (JD) to post total revenue of RMB310.6bn, up3.2% YoY, in line with Bloomberg consensus, and to report non-GAAP net profitof RMB5.9bn, down 54% YoY due to investments in the food delivery (FD)business and international expansion. However,ourforecastonnon-GAAP NPisabove consensus at RMB5.1bn, driven by better-than-expected QoQ lossreduction in FD and stronger-than-expected performance in the core JD Retailbusiness, aided by operating efficiency improvements.For 1Q26E, we estimateJD Retail OP to increase by 3% YoY to RMB13.2bn, and FD operating loss tonarrow to RMB7.0bn (4Q25:CMBI estimates ofRMB10.5bnloss). We maintainour 2026E revenue forecast largely unchanged, while raising our non-GAAP netprofitforecast by 4% to reflect a better-than-expected loss reduction trajectory China Internet Saiyi HE, CFA(852) 3916 1739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk Ye TAO, CFA(852) 3850 5226franktao@cmbi.com.hk Wentao LU, CFAluwentao@cmbi.com.hk Shuyin GUO(852) 3916 3716guoshuyin@cmbi.com.hk QoQrecovery in revenue growth in line with our expectation. Supported by a slight QoQ recovery inconsumption sentiment, we forecasttotal revenue growth of 3.2% YoY (4Q25: 1.5%)for 1Q26E, driven by 18.9%YoY growth in net services revenue, partially offset by a 0.7% YoY declinein net product revenue.In 1Q26E, we expect a slight QoQ acceleration inYoY growth of marketplace and advertising revenue to 15.4% (4Q25: Core JDR business to deliverbetter-than-expected OP growth.ForJDR, despite facing a high base in the electronics and home appliancecategories, we forecast revenue growth of 0.6% YoY to RMB265.4bn,supportedby solid performance in both general merchandise andmarketplace and advertising revenue.We expect OPM of 5.0% in 1Q26E FD business loss reduction likely better than expected.We expect FDoperating loss to narrow to RMB7.0bn in 1Q26E,from RMB13.1bn/RMB10.5bn in 3Q25/4Q25based on our estimate, driven by optimization inusersubsidies,improved operating efficiency,better order mix,and Source: FactSet Revision in financial forecast and valuation DCF-based target price of US$47.5 Our target priceofUS$47.5isderived fromtheDCF valuation methodology (WACC of11.8% and terminal growth of 1.0%; both unchanged), translating into 16x/12x 2026/2027E. Risks 1) Consumption recovery takes longer than we expect; 2) more intensified-than-expectedbusiness competition. Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for thecontent of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securitiesor issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (asdefined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listedcompanies covered in this report. CMBIGM RatingsBUY : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM OUTPERFORM:Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsMARKET-PERFORM:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevantbroad market benchmark over next 12 monthsUNDERPERFORM:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road,Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank) ImportantDisclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actua
