季度策略报告：从原料供给约束到下游需求受阻

2026年4月14日 从原料供给约束到下游需求受阻 观点摘要： [table_research]分析师：王江楠从业资格证号：F03108382投资咨询证号：Z0021543 宏源期货研究所TEL：010-82295006Email：wangjiangnan@swhysc.com 价格和利润依旧集中在上游环节，下游终端企业面临成本传导困境。海峡未能恢复正常通行前，化工商品的下方支撑较为稳固。 PX方面，市场交易供应缺量。PX供应商已通知下游客户减少4月的PX合约供应，多数企业计划减少10-30%左右比例供应。PX的中期交易逻辑是检修季带来的供应减量，短期地缘冲突导致原料缺失进而降负运行，交易逻辑没有发生改变。地缘冲突带来的还有物流的间接影响，中东的PX主要出口至美国，欧洲及东南亚区域，这些区域的PX缺口如何弥补将是关键问题。后续的上行空间取决于冲突的走向，如果炼厂大面积的降负减产，那空间可观；如果霍尔木兹海峡恢复通行，则价格将有回落，但整体价格重心已有抬升，很难再回落到年初的水平。 PTA方面，价格偏强震荡。因为原料短缺，部分没有PX配套的装置可能会出现计划外的减产，短期跟随成本易涨难跌。今年开年累库幅度较大，聚酯因上下游的双重打压而执行减产，PTA的库存压力无法向下转移。目前公布后续检修计划的装置并不多，部分装置预计在5-6月及三季度陆续落实检修计划，如果后期地缘局势缓和，上游和下游恢复时间可能存在时间差，PTA阶段性去库力度将变大。地缘局势对中东地区的PTA直接影响较为有限，但需求端无法追上原料上涨幅度，需求被迫后移，下半年的需求或有较好表现。 MEG方面，二季度连续去库。通过霍尔木兹海峡进口到中国的乙二醇占进口量的50%，所以冲突的直接影响是伊朗装置停车多久，间接影响是沙特货源的运输如何解决。如果战争持续至4月底以上，那去库幅度将更大，有望迎来宏观和基本面的共振（供减需增）。基本面风险点在于检修计划能否兑现及下游旺季到来需求的回升速度。短期市场极易受到消息面的影响，价格波动加剧，中长期的去库预期给乙二醇带来的利多较为充足。 目录 （一）“类基础设施”的上游截取了油价上涨的大部分利润................................................................................................5（二）原料是限制开工的重要因素.......................................................................................................................................6（三）PX价格强势但利润受到挤压...................................................................................................................................10（四）一季度库存前高后低.................................................................................................................................................10 二、PTA.....................................................................................................................................................................11 （一）行情回顾：价格重心抬升，但需求端难以承接......................................................................................................11（二）价格上涨，加工费下滑.............................................................................................................................................12（三）需求因冲突被推后，累库有所扩大.........................................................................................................................14（四）印度解除BIS限制，出口国将有变动.....................................................................................................................14 （一）行情回顾：冲突阻断中东货源进口，价格突破5600.............................................................................................15（二）煤制开工趁势提高，油制开工受原料影响明显下滑..............................................................................................16（三）供需结构有望在二季度转变为去库.........................................................................................................................16（四）中东地区货源短期无法有效恢复.............................................................................................................................17 （一）行情回顾：成本推涨下的上行.................................................................................................................................18（二）冲突引发被动减产.....................................................................................................................................................18（三）产销持续清淡，库存无法向下传导.........................................................................................................................19（四）BIS利好，出口保持高增..........................................................................................................................................22 五、纺服消费.................................................................................................................................................................23 （一）对狂飙的原料望尘莫及.............................................................................................................................................23（二）纺服出口显著增长.....................................................................................................................................................24 图表目录 图1：国际原油期货价格走势（美元/桶）·····························································································5图2：聚酯上游原料价格走势（美元/吨）·····························································································5图3：PX与原油价格走势（美元/桶，美元/吨）·····················································································5图4：PXCFR中国现货价格变化（美元/吨）························································································5图5：PX期货行情（手，元/吨）·······································································································6图6：PX基差走势（元/吨）············································································································6图7：PX国内开工率（%）···············································································································6图8：PX月度产量（千吨）··············································································································6图9：PXN价差走势（美元/吨）·······································································································10图10：PX-MX价差走势（美元/吨）·········································································