中国宏观追踪

EconomicsChina Better coordination ofdevelopment and security ◆Per capita spendingwassoft during the Qingming holiday,highlightingsupport still neededfor consumption Erin XinSenior Economist, Greater ChinaThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitederin.y.xin@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6975 ◆China accelerates the new energy system amidtheglobalenergy crunch, which could boost related exports too Jing LiuChief Economist, Greater ChinaThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedjing.econ.liu@hsbc.com.hk+852 3941 0063 ◆Chinastrengthens the legal framework for industrial andsupply chain security, with clauses to address foreign actions Heidi LiAssociateGuangzhou Per capita spendingstill softduring the Qingming holiday, support still neededDuring the three-day Qingming holiday (4-6 April) when the Chinese traditionallyhonour their ancestors by visiting tombs usually located in their hometowns, domestictourism trips reached135mn, an increase of6.8% y-o-y while travel spendingreached RMB61.37bn, an increase of6.6%y-o-y(Xinhua, 7 April). However, percapita spendingslipped 0.5%y-o-y, indicating ongoing consumer caution(chart1). Services consumption stayed comparatively resilient, with monitored catering salesup3.9%y-o-y. Travelalsoexpanded, with cross-city trips up 15.1%y-o-yandcar-rental orders upc40%.On goods consumption,thegoodstrade-in programmegeneratedsales ofRMB462.8bn by 5 April,withabout half fromautossales.Smart device adoption also accelerated, with smart glasses sales up 3.2timesandsmartwatches/bands up 12.3%during the Qingming holiday(CCTV, 7 April). All said though, given muted per capita spending, more support is still needed.On 3 April, China issued the 2026 action plan to upgrade service consumption,strengthening policy support across catering, elderly care and childcare, andculture/tourism.We believe a sustained recovery in consumptionalsohinges onstructural reformsaimedatliftinghousehold disposable income and improvedconsumer expectations, such asstronger social welfare, pension reform, higher-quality urbanisation, and more equal access to public services. China acceleratesthe new energy systemamidthe globalenergy crunch Uncertainty around the Middle East conflict is increasing the risk of global energysupply disruptions and price volatility, even as a temporary reprieve from a two-weekceasefire was reached.On 8 April,China once againlimited its price hikes forgasoline and diesel to around half thetypical increase under its pricing mechanismina bid tolimit passthrough to domestic fuel prices.We see China as relatively resilientin an energycrunch, supported by a diversified energy mix, substitution options, andsustained investment in the energy transition(seeChina Macro Tracker,1 April). Policy signals have strengthened noticeably.Premier Li Qiang’s late-March visit toSichuan focused on solar, nuclear and hydropower equipment manufacturing andintegrated wind-solar-hydro projects.State mediaalso reported President Xi’s call toaccelerated planningand construction of a new energy system to safeguardChina'senergy security(CCTV, 7 April). HSBC Global Investment Summit 14 to 16 April 2026 Find out more Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com The15thFive-Year Plantargetsan increase in non-fossil energyas a share of total energyconsumption to25% by 2030 from 21.7% in 2025.This will bebacked bynew energyinfrastructurebuildout. There is ample room for investmentand execution is speeding up.StateGridhas indicatedRMB4trnof fixed-asset investment in the 15thFYP(up40% vs the 14thFYP), while ChinaSouthern Power Gridaims forRMB1trn of investment,taking total grid investment beyondRMB5trn during the 15thFYP.Trillion-RMB flagship projects under the 15thFYPsuch as theYarlung Tsangpo Dam, “Shagohuang” (desert–Gobi–wasteland)renewable bases, and offshorewind hubs,are also progressing. Data showedsolar and wind installed capacity rose 33.2% and 22.8%y-o-yin January–February(chart2). In Q1, combinedfixed-asset investment by the two major grid operatorstotalled RMB167.5bn(State Gridup37%y-o-y; Southern Gridup49.5%y-o-y), catalysing overRMB330bn of related supply-chain investment and providing near-term support to growth andemployment(stcn, 3 April). Faster deployment of the new energy system should support industrial upgrading, improve theexport mix, and accelerate greenerconsumption.Globalenergy pressures may also push othercountries to speed uptheirtransition plans, expanding opportunities for China’s new energyproducts and grid equipment.In January-February, exports of the “new three”(EVs, solar andlithium-ion batteries)and power equipment rose 55% and 34%y-o-y, respectively(chart4). China strengthens the lega