中国宏观追踪：提振投资与创新

China government will front-load policies to boost investmentPresident Xi and President Trump made a phone call ahead of Senior Economist, Greater ChinaThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitederin.y.xin@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6975Taylor Wang an expected April summit Economist,ChinaThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedtaylor.t.l.wang@hsbc.com.hk+85222888650Jing Liu moreflexibilityforlistedtechcompaniestorefinance Chief Economist, Greater ChinaThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedjing.econ.liu@hsbc.com.hk+85239410063Heidi Li Ahead of the Chinese New Year holidays, local provincial and municipalities haveconcluded their local Two Sessions (or annual policy planning meetings).Continuingatrend wenoted earlier(seeChinamacrotracker,28 Jan),mostlocal governmentshave either lowered their2026GDPtargets (18provinces/cities)orkept themunchanged (12) (see Table 1). Only Jiangxi province raised its target by 0-0.5ppt. AssociateGuangzhou Weighted by GDP and calculated from local targets,we estimate the national targetthis year would be 0.3ppt lower than in 2025.The generally lower local GDP growthtargets suggest the national GDPgrowth target may take a moremoderate approachthis year, which we expect could be set at a range of "between 4.5% to 5%"4.6% in 2026.Additional details around the national budget and 15th Five Year Planwill also be unveiled during the Two Sessions starting 4-5 March. Despite the lower local GDP targets, policymakers remain committed to supportinggrowth. Premier Li held a State Council meeting on 6 February stressing the need toensure a strong start and solid foundation for the 15th FYP (Xinhua, 6 February)He noted the government will front-load the implementation of macro-policies andarrangefiscal funding in advance to maximise effectiveness. In a State Councilexecutive meeting held the sameday,thegovernment called forthe effective use ofgovernment bonds, and new policy-basedfinancial instruments.In our view, a strongrebound in FAl, likely via a stronger push in infrastructure investment, will be needed. While construction and industrial activity slows for abouta month around ChineseNew Year, the front-loading of government bond issuance should help set the stageonce workers return from theholidays.Sofar, around RMB70obn of special localgovernment bonds have been issued this year based on data from Wind, amountingto about 16% of the expected SLGB quota (HSBC forecasts RMB4.4trn)and a fasterpace than in 2025 (chart 30). ExtelSurvey2026 26 January - 13 February Click to vote Issuer of report: The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures & Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. ViewHSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com On February 4, President Xi and President Trump held a phone call, the first since the China-US framework agreement was reached last October. Both sides framed the discussions as positive andconstructive, with President Trump discussing a wide range of topics including his expectedupcoming trip to China in April, Chinese purchases of US oil and agricultural products as well asgeopolitics. The Chinese readout highlighted mutual respect and benefits from improved China-USrelations, though underscored that"the Taiwan question remains the most important issue" (MFA,4 Feb) and that the US must handle arms sales to Taiwan with caution (Xinhua, 4 February).Meanwhile, President Trump officially signed an executive order effective from 7 February that proposed rate of 25% (White House, 6 Feb). Modifications to the order may be implemented if acountryweretotake stepstohelpaddressthe national emergency".Itremains unclearhowtheorder may impact China, which is the largest importer of Iranian oil, though the situation in Iranwasbroughtupinthephonecall betweenthetwoleaders. progress. The first meeting of the China-Uk Financial Working Group which was held oncompanies to pursue cross-border listings through channels such as through a UK-China StockConnect program. China also supports Chinese financial institutions in the UK in developingmore RMB-denominated financial products.Meanwhile, Canada,after reducing tariffs onChinese electric vehicles from 100% to 6.1% (though only applicable on up to 49k vehicles),boost domestic production and exports of electric vehicles (Canada.ca, 5 February). Innovation:Stock market refinancing policies and innovation parks to support innovationInnovation will be a key focus of the 15th Five Year Plan and policies are already underway topart of this agenda.The Central Economic Work Conference in December2025proposed(the Yangtze River Delta), and the Greater Bay Area (GBA). In the local governments' 2026 workreports, these three international innovation clusters highlighted they will leverage their respectivestrengths to drive innovation m