中国宏观追踪：平衡之道

ChinaMacroTracker A balanced approach ◆Fiscal policyto prioritise economic stability and structural Taylor WangEconomist, ChinaThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedtaylor.t.l.wang@hsbc.com.hk ◆TheState Council promotesprivate investment in infrastructure Jing LiuChief Economist, Greater ChinaThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedjing.econ.liu@hsbc.com.hk+852 3941 0063 ◆Vice Premier He’s article underscores developing new Lulu Jiang (Reg. No. S1700523070001)Economist, Greater ChinaHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedlulu.l.l.jiang@hsbcqh.com.cn Mixed data,no budget revision during the NPC StandingCommittee Recent economic datasuggested amodest stabilisation incertainareas,notablywith CPIinflation returningto positiveterritory (SeeChina inflation,9 November) and foreignexchange reserves rising. In October, StateAdministration ofForeignExchangereportedChina’s foreign exchange reserves rose by USD4.7bnto USD3.343trnat the end ofOctober, marking the third consecutive monthly increase and the highest level sinceNovember 2015.The increase inforeign exchange reservesreflecteda combination offactors, includingexchange rateeffects(egtheaverage dollar indexrose1.08% in Heidi LiAssociateGuangzhou The mixed economic data, particularly the persistently subdued domestic demand, hasreinforced expectations for policy support. Notably, during the November NPC StandingCommittee, no additional fiscal stimulus was announced, indicating that policymakers maynot be overly concerned about meeting the “about 5%” annual growth target. However,unconventional measures are being implemented. For instance, policy banks have utilised Fiscal: Ministry of Finance reveals the next steps for fiscal policy Regarding medium-and long-term development, the Ministry of Finance (MOF) releaseda report on 7 Novdetailing the implementation of China’s fiscal policy forH12025. Thisreportalsooutlines the fiscal policy outlook for the coming year, highlighting six priorityareas. The foremost priority is to fully leverage“a more proactive fiscal policy”and Bulls on the march Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures & Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analystcertifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Theadditionalfiscal policy priorities include continuing support for employment and tradesectors,bolsteringnew growth drivers, safeguarding and improvingpeople’slivelihood,continuing the efforts inrisk prevention and resolution, and enhancingmore effectivefiscal Investment: State Council promotesprivate investment in infrastructure and otherareas On 10 Nov, the State Councilissued a noticeoutliningnew measures aiming at promotingprivate investment. These measuresincludeencouraging private capital participation in sectorssuch as railwaysandnuclear power,where the private capital shareholding ratio for eligibleprojects can exceed 10%.Additionally, the notice aims to enhance support for SMEs in In China, infrastructure investment has predominantly been driven by public funding. According to theNational Bureau of Statistics (NBS), private investment accounted for only 20% of all infrastructureinvestment in the first three quarters of this year.While recent measures, such as the introduction of aRMB500bn policy financing instrument, are expected to support investment projects, the government Of note, private investment in infrastructure rose 7% y-o-y in the first three quartersthis yearcompared to a 3.1% fall intotalprivate investment(+2.1% if excluding property investment). Inparticular, private investment in water conservancy management rose 42.4% and private Policy:developing new quality productive forces in accordance with the local conditions Vice Premier He Lifeng’sarticlein the People’s Dailyon10 Novoffers an authoritativeinterpretation of how China willimplementthe 15th Five-Year Planregardingnew productive forces (China 4th Plenum concluded,23 October).The article highlights a pragmatic and A central theme of this article is the call for a more localised approach in developing new productiveforces, aiming to prevent regions from hastily embarking on high-tech projects without sufficientresources or industrialfoundations. This strategy is crucial to avoiding redundant projects and over- competition, which the central government seeks to address through its anti-involution campaign Anotherkey messageofVicePremier He’s strategy is the“comprehensive implementation of‘AI+’action”, designed toempower industries across the board.This aligns with China’s AI Plus directiveissuedby the State Council in August 2025, which sets specific penetration targets: over 70% adoption Economic activity Note: Semi-steel tyres are key components for the production of automobiles.Source: Wind, HSBC Source: Wind, HSBC Source:Wind, HSBC Travel and logistics Source:Wind, HSBC; note: six cities includes Beij