数据中心的平衡之道：美国各州如何在机遇与挑战之间抉择

Public Sector PracticeThe data center balance: How US states can State governments will need to balance a complex range of costs and a fullview of the benefits as they weigh their strategies in data center Data centers representthe foundational infrastructure that fuels the many digital services thatindividuals, businesses, and governments rely on every day. This backbone of the digitaleconomy is poised for significant growth as the demand for cloud computing and AI accelerates. States across the United States are already seeing a surge in interest and investment from Our analysis shows that by 2030,companies will invest almost $7 trillion in capital expenditureson data center infrastructureglobally.2More than $4 trillion of it will go toward computing- hardware investments, with the balance going toward areas such as real estate and powerinfrastructure (Exhibit 1). More than 40 percent of this spending will be invested in the United Exhibit1 While much is still unknown about AI’s growth trajectory and the related economic dynamics, thescale of AI investment could drive significant GDP growth, create thousands of high-paying jobs,and spur innovation across various sectors. Significant challenges exist, however—from Where the data center value is States that can effectively plan, manage, and mitigate the risks of data center growth stand tounlock millions, perhaps even billions, of dollars in direct and indirect growth. At the same time, Northern Virginia exemplifies how strategic planning can harness data center growth. Byinvesting in robust infrastructure, maintaining a reliable energy grid, and offering targeted tax incentives, the region accounts for 13 percent of the world’s data center capacity.3At the sametime, it has mitigated risks through local zoning controls and energy efficiency measures, while Analysis by the Northern Virginia Technology Council and the Joint Legislative Audit and ReviewCommission suggests that data center investment could create value for states in four main —Economic growth.Investment in data centers can drive GDP growth, create thousands ofhigh-paying jobs, and spur innovation across various sectors. Based on a study by theNorthern Virginia Technology Council, the state of Virginia generated about $31 billion insupported economic output from data center construction and operations in 2023, as well —Jobs and skills.A typical large data center (around 250,000 square feet, for example) canadd up to 1,500 workers on-site during the construction phase, requiring a crew of sitedevelopers, equipment operators, construction workers, electricians, and technicians, manyearning wages upward of $100,000 per year (not including overtime). Many of these jobs donot require a college degree. For steady-state operations, more than 50 jobs can be created —Cross-sectoral growth.Data centers can act as catalysts for tangential industries such as energy, telecom, cloud services, software, and manufacturing, spurring the development ofadditional elements of the data center value chain. Northern Virginia’s data center boom, forinstance, increased power demand, leading Dominion Energy to build new substations and transmission lines (for example, the substation project in the region’s Haymarket area7). Datacenter growth in Loudoun and Prince William counties, in Virginia, often called Data Center —Innovation.The technological demands of data centers can help spur research andinnovation. The power demands of data centers are driving innovation in green-energy andsustainable power solutions such as fuel cells, solar power, and small modular reactors. With Demand growth and shifts in data centers Our analysis shows that global demand for data center capacity can more than triple by 2030,with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 22 percent (Exhibit 2). In the United Exhibit2 About 70 percent of that projected 2030 demand will come from hyperscalers, a trend alreadyevident in the recent announcements of tech giants partnering with various US states to investbillions in constructing large-scale data center sites. Hyperscalers are working on building largecampuses to capture the value of colocated compute, resulting in sites that often cover Four trends will be the biggest drivers of this demand: —Growth of AI and high-performance computing.The rapid evolution of AI technology hasresulted in the development of large language models with advanced reasoning capabilities(for example, OpenAI’s GPT-4) that are computationally more intense than previous versions. —The continuing growth of cloud migration and software as a service.Data center demand inthe United States from cloud and other non-gen-AI-related drivers is projected to grow at 16 —The increasing digitalization of public services.We anticipate an increase in digitalizedservices in areas such as healthcare, the Department of Motor Vehicles, and digital —Accelerating technology trends.Trends such as the Internet of