中国宏观追踪：各方观点

EconomicsChina Anyone’s call ◆President Trump andPresident Xitrade talks could helptoquell tensions,but exporters still likelyto facepressure Erin XinEconomist, Greater ChinaThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitederin.y.xin@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6975 ◆Dragon Boat Festival showedimprovedconsumption, whiletrade-inprograms continue to boost durables demand Lulu Jiang (Reg. No. S1700523070001)Economist, Greater ChinaHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedlulu.l.l.jiang@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 755 8898 3404 ◆“Major financial policies”tocomeat theJuneLujiazui Forum,which could be centred on new growth areas Taylor WangEconomist, ChinaThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedtaylor.t.l.wang@hsbc.com.hk+852 2288 8650 Trade:US-China tradetalkscould help temper recent tensions US-China trade talkslook to have hit another snag, though talks between the twopresidentsmay be imminent. Multiple US officials have stated that talks betweenPresident Trump and President Xicould happen soon(CNBC,Reuters,2 June). Jing LiuChief Economist, Greater ChinaThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedjing.econ.liu@hsbc.com.hk+852 3941 0063 In the recent days, both sides have pointedtothe otherforhaving violated the termsof the Geneva agreement(Reuters, 31 May; Gov.cn,2 June).On the US side,USTrade Representative Jamieson Greerstatedthat China had notremovedsome non-tariff trade barriers as agreed, such as lifting export restrictions on rare-earthmaterials (BBC, 31 May).As previously noted by our Asia Economists, Rare EarthsElements (REEs)are critical for many products including electronics anddefensematerials,withChina dominatingnearly every stage of the REE supply chain (seeRare Earths in Asia, 11 March).On China’s end, it noted that recent restrictions fromstoppingthesales of chip design software to Chinese companies as well astherevocation of Chinese student visaswent against the agreement(Gov.cn, 2 June). Heidi LiAssociateGuangzhou Nonetheless, with thepausein tariffsin place,there remains hope forsomeimprovementin trade, though data stillappear mixed.High-frequency data showedthat China's major ports' freight throughputrose further(up 4.4% y-o-y in May),whilesomeexports to theUShave rebounded in recent days, likely as someinventory wasdigested(Charts 21-22).Further increasesin container shipping costs on China-Eastern US routes and China-Southeast Asiaroutes,as well as thesurgingYiwu smallcommodity export price index,alsosuggestimprovementfor exports(Charts26-27). However, we still see signs of pressure on exporters.Boththe NBSand CaixinPMIfor manufacturing showedongoing contraction in new export orders in May, thoughNBS saw an expansion in overall production,while Caixin moved to a contraction.Thedifferencesmay bepartly due to thevariationsinsurvey samples,with the NBSseeing abroader reach,while Caixin tends to be focused more on export-orientedand smaller firms, andsurveydates, withthe NBSlater(22-25thof the month)thanCaixin (12-21 May). HSBC Global Research Podcasts Listen to our insights Find out more Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBCGlobal Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Consumption:Some improvementsfrom holidays and trade-in programs China just concluded its Dragon Boat festival,which lasted 3 daysfrom 31 May to 2 June.The data showed continued improvement in consumption and travel demand: domestic tripsincreased 5.7% y-o-y,whilecross-regional movement reached657 millionpeople,up 3% y-o-y(CCTV, 3 June).Notably, international arrivals under the visa-free policy were up 59% y-o-y,reaching 231k people. Spending also appeared to be robust, as domestic spending rose 5.9% y-o-y (CCTV, 3 June).On a per capita tripbasis,spending wasstill down 14% from 2019 levels,though flat (0.2%) from2024.Meanwhile, electronics payments data showed spending was up 3.4%y-o-yor RMB4.8trnfor the period, with transactions from international visitorsrising59% y-o-y (PBoC, 3 June). Meanwhile, latest data from the Ministry of Commerce showed that consumer trade-in programshave continued to be successful andgenerated sales of RMB1.1trn in the first five months of thisyear (Xinhua, 1 June). The program contributed c1ppt and 1.6ppt to headline retail sales growth in2024 and 1Q25 (NDRC, 15 April; Gov.cn, 25 April). Looking ahead, trade-ins shouldcontinue toboost consumption in the near term, given another RMB140bn of funding supportfromultralong-dated special treasury bond issuance(RMB1.3trn total quota) hasyet to be issued and allocatedfor the program. That said, more structural measurestoimproveincomes and enhancesocialsafety nets, such as pension reforms,are also needed(seeChina’s pension reform, 2 June). On the other hand,intense competitioncontinuesto weigh on prices, particularlyamong automanufacturers(