中国宏观追踪

China spikestodomesticprices byusingtemporaryregulations Senior Economist, Greater ChinaThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitederin.y.xin@hsbc.com.hk+85229966975Taylor Wang and investment,aswell asrebalancingtowardslocal demand Economist,ChinaThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedtaylor.t.l.wang@hsbc.com.hk+85222888650Jing Liu bright spots in R&D centres and the pharmaceutical industry Chief Economist, Greater ChinaThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedjing.econ.liu@hsbc.com.hk+85239410063Heidi Li On 23 March, the NDRC announced temporary regulatory measures to limit thepass-through of global oil price increases to domestic refined oil prices (NDRC,23 March).Under this mechanism, the actual increase in domestic petrol and dieselprices is roughly half of what would otherwise have been applied in this round,helpingtoeasecostpressuresfordownstreamsectors.Thisisthefirsttimethemechanism has been used since 2013. AssociateGuangzhou Rather than broadly subsidising end-users at the pump (a more common approach inmany economies), China typically uses large state-owned refining firms as the firstbuffer to absorb part of the cost shock, with policy support (including price subsidiesor fiscal/tax measures) used to help stabilise refinery operations and ensure supply.The intent is to smooth inflationary pressure for households and businesses whilemaintaining refined product availability, though this triggers more fiscal spendingwhen refinery compensation is required (i.e.,wheninternational crude oil pricesequalorexceed USD130perbarrel). As the next pricing adjustment window will come only in April, our estimates indicatethat average domestic petrol prices are set to increase by around 12% m-o-m in March,which may notably lag global oil price gains in the month. Domestic petrol prices areexpected to return to y-o-y growth for the first time since August 2024 (chart 1). China Development Forum:opening up, livelihood and consumption in focusThe 2026 China Development Forum was held22-23March, with speeches from seniorofficials including Premier LiQiang,PBOC GovernorPan Gongsheng,FinanceMinisterLanFo'an,and HanWenxiu,DeputyDirectorof theOfficeoftheCentral FinancialandEconomicAffairs Commission.Theforum wasakeypolicycommunication windowimmediatelyafter the NPC,wherepolicymakers elaborated on China's coregrowthstrategy and priorities for 2026 and 15th FYP. A central message was a renewed emphasis on opening up trade and a more balancedimport-export profile. This reinforces our view that imports willikely be supported thisyear, with more growth drivers being shifted towards domestic demand. HSBC Global Investment Summit 14 to 16 April 2026 Find out more Issuer of report: The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures &Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. ViewHSBCGlobalInvestmentResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.com compete for a fixed pie (Xinhua, 22 March). He reiterated that China would remain firmly committedmore balanced and optimised trade, also key points within the 15th FYP (18 March).Effortstorebalancetradewillextendbeyondgoods,withChinaalsocommittingtoexpandpilot programmes that open up several services sectors. PBoC Govermor Pan noted that while China isfinancialmarkets". pair direct fiscal support with structural reforms. For one, Lan Fo'an indicated "sufficient" deficitsupport over the next five years, alongside a higher share of public-service spending within totalfiscal outlays and a larger proportion of livelihood-related investment (Xinhua, 22 March). He alsosuch as special bonds and fiscal-financial coordination tools-to unlock latent consumerspending potential. social safety netsbetter covering migrant workers, the rural elderly and gig workerswhilestrengthening support for unemployed youth. Demographics are moving closer to the centre ofthe growth model: Han Wenxiu noted the 15th FYP Outline for the first time includes “high-qualitydecline. Pan explicitly highlighted expanding investment and consumption in education,healthcare and elderly care. FDI:Pharmaceutical FDIis heatingup as MNCs viewChina as an innovationhub notedattheforumthatChinawillstrengtheninvestorconfidencethroughenhancingthealso underscored sustained high-level attention to FDI when he met with leaders from 11multinational companies including HSBC, UBS and Louis Dreyfus on 21 March. Meanwhile, the 15th Five-Year Plan also places greater emphasis on technology and innovation(China's 15th FYP, 18 March).While China has long been viewed as a global manufacturinghub, we think its rising innovation capabilities willikely create new opportunities for foreigncapital and attract multinationals to set up R&D centres in China. In fact, pharmaceuticals are emerging as key drivers of incremental FDl. Minister of CommerceWang Wentao recentl