三月季度业绩或不及预期；内存风险被高端iPhone路线图抵消

We expect a slight miss in its Mar Q results (also < guidance) due to 1) lowersell-in than sell through led by previously high inventories, 2) 1ppt lower GMon iPhone due to higher memory costs. LT we expect higher memory coststo be offset by its premium iPhone product roadmap, and its ability to raiseprices (12% ASP Cagr to FY29E). We heard no delay in the 18 Fold, butforecast only 1.5m units in CY26. Many factors in the works; but strong sellthrough may lead to overly optimistic cons for2QFY26.We see 20%+ sellthrough growth in China and 5%-10% growth RoW in the Mar Q, likelydriven by pulled-in demand (as Android prices already rising but not iPhone). We highlightedthe strength of the 17 base model given its aggressive pricing. The iPhone 17e also adoptedthe same pricing strategy (2x the storage but same price as the 16e). However, China's MIITsmartphone shipment data (= sell in) show 24% YoY fall in iPhone's shipment in Jan+Feb.Even if it catches up with sell through in March, we believe China's sell-in in 1Q will be downby 5%-10%. That is driven by previously high inventories. RoW we estimate sell in could be flatto LSD growth., driving our est of only 2% shipment growth in the Mar Q (sellthrough up bymid teen). Mar Q iPhone rev growth is forecast at 19% (vs 23% in the Dec Q). Our ~12% totalrev growth forecast is below mgt guidance of 13%-16%. Moreover, we forecast a 1ppt lowerGM for iPhone/iPad, given our assumption that memory cost has rsien by 60%-100% QoQ forAAPL, which could impact 0.5-1 month of the Mar Q. Hence our OP/NP forecasts are 7%/3%below cons. But longer term we are NOT bearish.Despite skyrocketing memory costs (see here for ournote on the impact on global smartphone), we see AAPL as the most resilient consumerelectronics player given its high ASP, thus ability to raise prices with limited demand impact,and its premium iPhone roadmap. We believe AAPL would be able to offset higher memorycosts by 1) raising prices (less price sensitive consumers), and 2) introducing more expensiveversions of the iPhone (ie, foldable, all-glass models) that will generate higher margin.Moreover, these new premium models would allow AAPL to realize a rising mix of its iPhonesales in 1) the premium variants, and 2) the current-year model, both of which would boost itsASP further (older models will sell at a bigger wholesale discount). We forecast 12% realizedASP Cagr from FY25 to FY29, which would offset our new assumptions of a 3-4ppt of GMdecline. AAPL's rev share in the global smartphone market is set to rise further. Forecast changes - slight D/G in the next 3 years but U/G beyond that.Our DCF-basedPT is up 3%. Our new forecasts imply 15% EPS Cagr (FY26E-29E) and 2x PEG, which is lessdemanding than in the past 6 months. We maintain HOLD. We believe any selloff on the backof a potentially light Mar Q result may appeal to investors as a longer term holding. The Long View: Apple Inc. Investment Thesis •Apple is the only hardware-software integrated smart device player,allowing it to offer a highly sticky ecosystem, which dominates the globalhigh-end segment.•However, smartphone hardware tech would have to move to a 3Dstructure to enable more sophisticated AI capabilities. But high memorycost is a headwind.•Hence, we think current expectations for Apple Intelligence to kickstarta super upgrade cycle are too high. Apple also may have limitedaccess to app data to gain sufficient understanding of iPhone users'daily schedules, habits and social/business contacts to develop highlypersonalized AI services.•But AAPL's premium iPhone roadmap and ability to raise prices wouldoffset higher memory cost pressure. Upside Scenario,$363.26, +39% Base Case,$294.91, +13% Downside Scenario,$183.34, -30% •iPhonevolumedecreases/increasesby0.1%/1.4% in 2026E/2027E.•Retail ASP to rise by US$100 for iPhone 18 andanother US$50 for 19 due to higher hardwarecosts.•Expect 18 Fold vol at 12.5m at a blended ASPof US$2,073•Apple is not able to charge any fees for AI asconsumers do not find AI useful enough.•DCF to FY31 based on 7.8% WACC and 1.7%terminal growth, implying 24.5x FY26E PE and2.3x FY26E PEG. •iPhone volume increases by 3.3%/2.0% in2026E/2027E.•Retail ASP to rise by US$100 for iPhone 18 andanother US$50 for 19 due to higher hardwarecosts.•Expect 18 Fold vol at 12.5m at a blended ASPof US$2,073•Apple starts charging US$4/month for AIservices as of 1QCY28E outside China.•DCF to FY31 based on 7.8% WACC and 4.1%terminal growth, implying 39.3x FY26E PE and2.7x FY26E PEG. •iPhonevolumeincreases/decreasesby7.2%/2.5% in 2026E/2027E.•Retail ASP to rise by US$100 for iPhone 18 andanother US$50 for 19 due to higher hardwarecosts.•Expect 18 Fold vol at 12.5m at a blended ASPof US$2,073•Apple starts charging US$5/month for AIservices as of 1QCY28E outside China.•DCF to FY31 based on 7.8% WACC and 5.0%terminal growth, implying 48.6x FY26E PE and5.3x FY26E PEG. Sustainability Matters Catalysts Top Material Issue(s): 1) Product Qu