马拉维经济监测，2026年2月：正确改革-专题-扭转马拉维出口下滑

Public Disclosure Authorized   © 2026 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development /The World Bank1818 H Street NWWashington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contribu-tions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this workdo not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of ExecutiveDirectors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in thiswork. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shownon any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The WorldBank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or Rights and PermissionsThe material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, inwhole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should beaddressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group,1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625;e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover image:"Echoes of Instability: Rethinking Markets for a Just Recovery” by Jimmy Malinga Cover design, interior design and typesetting:Piotr Ruczynski, London, United Kingdom CONTENTS AcknowledgementsAbbreviations Overview Economic Developments 1 1.1Global and Regional Context A resilient global economy faces a worsening outlook 1.2Recent Economic Developments Growth remains subdued despite a modest rebound in agriculture21Persistent double-digit deficits undermine Malawi’s fiscal stability25Current account deficit deepens as reserves remain critically low31Inflation is moderating but remains elevated amid supply-side, fiscal, and monetary pressures32 1.3Medium-Term Economic Outlook 2Reversing Malawi’s Export Decline Why exporting matters for Malawi’s development prospectsUnderstanding Malawi’s decade-long export decline in five stylized factsPolicy barriers behind, at and beyond the border impede Malawi’s export potentialMaintaining momentum of emerging agro-processing value chains BOXES BOX 1.1Malawi’s Labor Market Shows Deep StructuralWeaknesses Despite a Growing Workforce23 BOX 1.4Why Malawi Needs Domestic DebtRestructuring—and How to Design It Effectively29 BOX.1.2Introduction of Free Secondary EducationSupports Equity but Requires Managing Fiscal Challenges26BOX 1.3Strengthening Decentralization in Malawi forGreater Accountability and Improved Service Delivery27 BOX 2.1New Visa Requirements Could NegativelyImpact the Tourism Sector FIGURES FIGURE O.1A Snapshot of Malawi’s Recent EconomicDevelopmentsFIGURE 1.1Global growth has performed better thanexpected in 2025…FIGURE 1.2…amid high trade volumes…FIGURE 1.3…front-loading of industrial productionahead of higher tariffs… FIGURE 1.17The reinstatement of the automaticadjustment mechanism for fuel will help fuel prices becost recovery25 FIGURE 1.18Since 2022, Malawi has had one of the highest budget deficits in Sub-Saharan Africa 25FIGURE 1.19Expenditures remain significantly higherthan revenues…26FIGURE 1.20…and the fiscal deficit in 2025 was larger than in the previous three years26 19FIGURE 1.4…and improvements in financial marketconditions19 FIGURE 1.5Inflation is on a downward trend…20 FIGURE B.1.3.1Local government spending as ashare of total spending has halved since 200527FIGURE B.1.3.2The share of transfers to localgovernments for recurrent service delivery has fallen FIGURE 1.6…as commodity prices continue to ease 20 dramatically FIGURE 1.7Regional growth trends are uneven20FIGURE 1.8Inflation in Malawi remains the highest in 27FIGURE 1.21The government continues to borrowheavily from the financial sector at high interest rates28FIGURE 1.22…and the RBM has been a major buyer the region, while it is softening in most of its neighbors FIGURE 1.9Weak recovery in agriculture and industry stifled economic output in 202521 FIGURE 1.10Consumption is the main driver ofeconomic activity21FIGURE 1.11Spending on fertilizer subsidies has little of public debt28FIGURE 1.23Public debt has risen significantly overthe past two decades…28 FIGURE 1.24…driven by high and persistent fiscaldeficits, low growth, exchange rate pressures and an unidentified debt28 impact on maize production22FIGURE 1.12Most households do not produce enough FIGURE 2.5Tobacco continues to dominate good exports FIGURE 1.31Inflation remained high in the secondhalf of 2025…33FIGURE 1.32…driven in part by high money supply FIGURE 2.6Malawi’s exports have become less diversified in the past decade44FIGURE 2.7Exports are concentrated among a few growth to finance the large fiscal deficit33FIGURE 1.33The policy rate has remained stable firms and in a few products and