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马拉维经济监测，2025年7月：驾驭不确定性（英）2025

交运设备2025-08-25世界银行周***

AI智能总结

Malawi's economy is facing a deep and protracted crisis characterized by high inflation, declining living standards, and widespread food insecurity. Since 2020, GDP growth has plummeted from an average of 4.1% (2011–2019) to 2.2%, below the population growth rate of 2.6%, leading to falling incomes. External shocks like cyclones and droughts have exacerbated these issues, compounded by policy failures including a procyclical fiscal policy, an overvalued exchange rate, unsustainable borrowing, and trade restrictions.

Key challenges include:

Food insecurity: Maize production has fallen short of domestic needs for two consecutive cropping seasons, with 2024/25 estimates at 2.9 million metric tons, below the required 3.3–3.5 million MT. This, coupled with forex shortages, leaves millions facing acute food insecurity.
Inflation: Despite a slight decline at the end of 2024, inflation remained above 30% in early 2025 due to high food prices, exchange rate dynamics, and expansive fiscal policy. The strong correlation between money supply growth and inflation highlights the role of fiscal deficits.
Private sector struggles: Businesses face high costs, input shortages, restrictive trade policies, and limited access to credit, hindering growth and investment.
Fiscal imbalances: The 2024/25 budget saw a 10.5% GDP deficit, driven by spending overruns and revenue shortfalls. High domestic borrowing has led to soaring interest payments, consuming 45.8% of domestic revenue and crowding out public investment and social spending.
Debt distress: Malawi's external and overall public debt are classified as "in distress," with the 2025 DSA indicating potential for sustainability only if the external debt restructuring process is successfully completed.
Current account deficit: The 2024 deficit reached 22.0% of GDP, driven by declining export competitiveness and persistent fiscal deficits. Official reserves cover less than one month of imports, while the RBM has been a net seller of forex.

The report emphasizes the need for urgent reforms in three areas:

Restoring macroeconomic stability: Increasing domestic revenues, reducing wasteful spending, finalizing debt restructuring, and controlling borrowing to curb inflation.
Supporting investment and export growth: Phasing out fuel subsidies, implementing mining sector reforms, removing forex surrender requirements, and reducing trade barriers.
Building resilience and protecting the poor: Investing in climate-resilient agriculture, enhancing social protection systems, and mitigating food insecurity risks.

The outlook faces significant risks, including potential fiscal overruns during the election year, declining foreign aid, and climate-related shocks. However, Malawi's banking sector remains resilient, with strong capital buffers and liquidity, though rising NPLs suggest potential vulnerabilities. The report concludes that decisive actions are needed to prevent further economic deterioration and create a foundation for sustainable growth.

© 2025 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development /The World Bank1818 H Street NWWashington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contribu-tions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this workdo not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of ExecutiveDirectors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in thiswork. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shownon any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The WorldBank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement oracceptance of such boundaries. Rights and PermissionsThe material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, inwhole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution tothis work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should beaddressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group,1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625;e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover image:“Lost at Sea” by Evelyn Chisambiro Cover design, interior design and typesetting:Piotr Ruczynski, London, United Kingdom Acknowledgements6Abbreviations7 Overview 1Global and Regional Context 13 The global economy faces significant volatility, as heightened policy uncertainty adversely impacts growth prospects13 2Recent Economic Developments Malawi’s economy remains under significant strain, with decreasing per capita incomes and rising food insecurity16While Malawi is confronting a host of economic challenges, it has succeeded in improving some human development outcomes19The private sector struggles from a difficult business climate, a worsening macroeconomy and severe input shortages19Fiscal challenges persist, amid expenditure overruns and revenue shortfalls22Malawi remains in debt distress while the pace of borrowing increases, constraining fiscal space andcrowding out credit to the private sector25The current account deficit hit a record high in 2024, as export competitiveness continues to decline28Inflation remains elevated in the context of high money supply growth29Financial sector capital, profitability and liquidity positions continue improving, supported by governmentborrowing at the cost of increased private sector credit30 3Medium-Term Economic Outlook33 Key policy priorities include macroeconomic stability, increasing investment and exports, and resilience to shocks34 BOXES BOX 1For many food-insecure households, borrowingfrom village banks is a key coping strategy18BOX 2Nigeria’s experience highlights the unintendedconsequences of import barriers21BOX 3Recent drivers of the fiscal deficit24BOX 4The urgent need for fiscal consolidation27 BOX 5Weathering the storm: Empowering Malawi’sfinancial institutions and SMEs in an era of heightenedclimate disaster risks32BOX 6Lessons from Malawi’s “millennium crisis” canhelp address current challenges33 FIGURES FIGURE 16Issuance of high-cost domestic debtcontinues to rise26FIGURE 17The financial sector is significantlyexposed to the public sector26FIGURE B4.1Debt has risen significantly…27FIGURE B4.2…yet public spending has notsupported growth27FIGURE B4.3Primary balances have beeninsufficient to stabilize debt…27FIGURE B4.4…and Malawi’s domestic debtdynamics are unfavorable27FIGURE 18The trade deficit widened in 2024, in thecontext of an overvalued currency…28FIGURE 19…and this trend is continuing, with importscontinuing to outpace exports28FIGURE 20Reserve accumulation has beenchallenging for the RBM…29FIGURE 22Inflation remains elevated, amid highmoney supply growth and food prices29FIGURE 21…as the RBM remains a net seller of forex29FIGURE 23…as maize prices hit a record high29FIGURE 24Deficit financing has been the largestcomponent of broad money supply growth30FIGURE 25The policy rate has been fixed at 26percent since early 202430FIGURE 26Yields on domestic securities have notvaried in the past year30FIGURE 27Malawi’s banks continue to beextraordinarily profitable31FIGURE 28The community, social and personalservices sector continues to dominate credit allocation31 FIGURE O.1A snapshot of Malawi’s recent economicdevelopments12FIGURE 1The global economy has entered a volatile phase13FIGURE 2GDP growth rates for 2025 are projected toinclude broad-based downgrades, but SSA remains resilient14FIGURE 3While inflation continues to decelerate,significant risks remain14FIGURE 4More than half of low-income countries areeither in debt distress or at high risk of it…15FIGURE 5…while global financial conditions are tightening15FIGURE 6Real GDP growth has been subdued since 2020…16FIGURE 7…and is lower than in Malawi’s peers16FIGURE 9Tobacco sales value and the price oftoba

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