行业趋势 电子ICT 2026年1月

Accelerating AI andEV demand drivesone of world’s fastest- Global overview input costs into their margins. Most likely is a combination of these two.Although major memory chipmakers are investing to expand production Robust growth rates, but memory chip shortage is an issue for We expect electronics/ICT production to grow by 10.3% in 2026and by 6.5% in 2027 after a 10.2% in 2025. These robust growthrates are mainly due to the ongoing AI boom, as the combinationof high expectations in the technology and its geopolitical Electronics components, boards and semiconductors will account for alarge share of sector growth over the coming years. The primary driversof demand will be accelerating digitalisation, industrial automationand the increased need for high-end semiconductors, particularly fromgrowth segments such as artificial intelligence (AI) and electric vehicles Worldwide semiconductor sales are expected to grow by 18.8%this year, following 22.8% in 2025, led by cutting-edge logic andmemory chips for AI data centres. Strength in tech investment isparticularly apparent in the US, but the positive spillover ripples An AI bubble burst and tariffs are downside risks However, there is the potential downside risk that a sharp decline inconfidence in the future benefits of AI could trigger an abrupt end tothe current investment boom, resulting in a pronounced AI bubble burst.In such a scenario, US tech stocks would fall by around 25%, and USand Asian high-tech businesses and economies would see a sharp hit.The US has recently imposed a 25% tariff under Section 232 on certainadvanced semiconductors. This measure creates further immediate As chipmakers shift production capacity towards cutting-edgechips for AI use with higher margins, global production capacityfor traditional memory chips is dwindling. The shortage andassociated price increases are harmful for purchasers of traditionalmemory chips such as producers of smartphones, PCs, consumerelectronics, electrical machinery, and automobile manufacturers.Producers in those sectors could still acquire memory chips if Industry performance forecast Industry trendsElectronics /ICT Strengths and growth drivers Constraints and downside risks US-China tensions.Trade issues have spilled over to technology.Both the Trump and Biden administrations have imposedregulations to prevent Chinese companies from acquiring USsemiconductor manufacturing technologies and equipment. High-tech expansion.Electronics/ICT is an innovative andtechnology-driven industry. In particular, the semiconductor Expanding semiconductor production.This is a strategic targetin the US, EU and Asia. Legislation has been passed recently to Growing “chip nationalism”.In addition to technologicaldivergences, (e.g. in 5G deployment), chip nationalism could leadto inefficient production processes and increased production Growth of digitalisation, automation, AI and EVs.Acceleratingdigitalisation, industrial automation, and increased demand foradvanced semiconductors from new growth segments like AIand EVs will all help the ICT industry become one of the fastest AmericasElectronics /ICT outlook USA After a 16.1% surge in 2024, outputgrowth cooled down somewhat to 5.5%in 2025, and in 2026 we expect a 5.7% The AI boom continues to drive robust We expect US electronics/ICT productionto grow by 7.4% in 2026, followed bya 6.2% increase in 2027. Electroniccomponents and boards, which includesemiconductors, will continue to driveheadline growth due to strong AI demandand the US administration’s push to Output in the precision instrumentssegment grew 2.5% in 2025. Thissubsector is very reliant on capitalspending. Given an upgrade in USinvestment outlook growth productionis set to accelerate to 4% in 2026. Fading The credit risk in the sector is poor /business performance in the sector is weakcompared to its long-term trend. Due to generally low margins for segmentslike consumer electronics and computerand office equipment, low input costsare critical. This will hamper initiatives toshift manufacturing in those subsectorsback to a high-cost environment such asthe US. Apart from the semiconductor Output in the electronic components andboards segment is forecast to grow by12.3% in 2026 after a 14.7% increase in2025. Nvidia’s Blackwell – the firm’s mostadvanced chips designed for next-gen AI– started domestic production in TSMC’sArizona plant in October 2025. US chipproduction capacity will likely continueto ramp up over the coming years due Although there is the downside risk of anAI overhype – the latest signal being theincreasing use of debt-financing – hightech firms’ balance sheets are generally Production in the computer and officeequipment segment increased 13.6%in 2025. This was due to a replacementcycle, where people and businessesthat invested in equipment during thepandemic are now looking to upgrade US production of telecommunicationsequipment has grown strongly in recentyears du