第一季度新兴主题对2026年及以后的意义

April 2026 Luke Templeman | Thematic Strategist |Luke.Templeman@db.com| +44 207 541 0130Galina Pozdnyakova | Research Analyst |Galina.Pozdnyakova@db.com| +44 207 547 4994 Contents 1.What themes are driving markets?2.The market impact of specific themes3.Investor psychology over the last quarter Thought experiment If, at the beginning of 2026, someone asked how far the S&P 500 would fall if the Strait of Hormuz was closed, what would youhave answered? Probably more than the 6-7% peak-to-trough drop in Q1 The result reflects not just that corporate earnings forecasts remainresilientand investors are fearful of being out of the market if there is a sudden ceasefire inIran and markets rebound. It also reflects how some of the broader themes and megatrends in markets are influencing the outcome. Our thanks to Krystle Coe for her assistance with this presentation 1. What themes are driving markets? The themes driving markets in Q1–based on AI analysis of our daily market commentaries Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East "Picks and shovels" AI investment theme3 Equity market correction and increased volatility How much did each key theme in Q1 impact the S&P 500 (as a proxy for risk assets morebroadly)? AI disruption Fed policy Energy markets Iran conflict Central banks typically don’t react tosupply-side shocks, but the Fed may delay The sell-off is just one of many over thelast 3 years. Good tech earnings for Q1 & 2 Investors are not pricing in a recession, butif oil remains above $90, they may It mattered … a lot … but the reality is thatother factors support markets Our AI analysis shows the importance of each ‘theme category’ to markets each month The impact of today’s themes 1 year ahead We asked our AI model,dbLumina, to analyse the impact of the themes for the quarter. The ‘positive’ and ‘negative’indicators are relative to expectations for the year at thebeginningof the quarter. For example, a net negative score forthe S&P 500 does not mean we expect the index to fall. Rather it means we see the rising probability that the result will be The impact of today’s themes 3 years ahead We are far more optimistic into the medium term. That appears to reflect the fact that the background economic andcorporate fundamentals are relatively solid. Still, there are numerous trends working against global economic growth, Emerging themes–part 1We askeddbLuminato help us identify the key emerging themes that have the potential to most impact markets and economies in the short term The ‘AI hardware’ squeeze and supply chain bifurcation1 Sovereign fiscal fragility and the rising cost of debt2 In Q1, there was a clear "bifurcation" between AI beneficiaries (hardware)and laggards (software), as investors grew more discerning. Mounting government deficits and rising debt service costs may becomemore prominent, particularly given the energy price shock. 12-Month Outlook:The focus will shift from the conceptual "AI disruption"to the tangible constraints and opportunities in the hardware manufacturing The dollar’s drop and then rally in Q1 partly reflected growing unease aboutthe US fiscal and policy path. In Europe, fiscal concerns in France widened We expectincreased volatility in semiconductor stocksas investorsscrutinise margin pressures, capex guidance, and the ability to maintain 12-Month Outlook:We expect fiscal discipline to emerge as a continuousmarket narrative rather than a sporadic one. Yield spreads may spike rapidly as markets price in a ‘great divergence’ infiscal health. This may lead to near-term headwinds for equity markets inmore-indebted nations and could lead to renewed domestic political US policy on the export of advanced chips will likely impact earnings for aconcentrated but critical group of companies. Emerging themes–part 2A key learning from the ‘emerging theme’ analysis is the focus on some longer-term themes that have been pushed aside by the conflict in Iran Reshoring and the proliferation of “friend-shoring"3 Strain in US-consumer and labour market dynamics4 This builds on the theme of ‘middle powers’ building alliances betweenthemselves, restructuring global supply chains. In Q1, Canada wasparticularly active with Prime Minister Carney visiting numerous middlepower countries to seek closer economic ties. Meanwhile, the EU and India There is a worrying paradox of weak consumer sentiment but a resilient(potentially fragile) economy–a trend confirmed by economic reports andsurveys in Q1. In particular, the "two-speed" economy became moreapparent, with reports noting job cuts in sectors like government, finance, 12-Month Outlook:The health of the US consumer is our most closelywatched variable for the US economy and the S&P 500. Any slowdown willput the Fed in a difficult position, forcing it to choose between fighting 12-Month Outlook:‘Middle power’ countries are likely to increase theircapital investment and M&A activityin sectors deemed