埃尔姆公司（ELM）：对第一季度及以后的进一步思考

Evgenii Annenkov * | Equity Analyst+971 4 4231 6008 | eannenkov@jefferies.comAvishay Mehra * | Equity Analyst+971 4 4231 6009 | avishay.mehra@jefferies.com1Q25 -56% Y/Y due to delayed bookings onthe Nusuk platform following Hajj visa quotachanges.4.0060.013126624.045.033.029.01091368.0013.048.020212022202320241Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q241Q25Source: Company reportsExhibit 2 - Automated operations on AbsherYTD, m4M25 was 96% Y/Y; April was 113% Y/Y vs 90%in 1Q25.0.0JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecSource: Absher.sa, JefferiesExhibit 3 - Automated operations on Abshermonthly, mBusiness was 28% Y/Y in April vs 18% in 1Q25;Individuals 154% Y/Y vs 139% in 1Q25.0.02.04.06.08.0Source: absher.sa, Jefferies Company DescriptionElm CompanyElm Co. provides integrated digital solutions and e-government services. The company was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Riyadh, Kingdomof Saudi Arabia.Company Valuation/RisksElm CompanyWe derive our SAR1,440 PT based on a DCF model. Our key assumptions include: (1) 5.0% PGR, (2) 28.0% terminal EBITDA margin, (3) 1.0% terminalcapex/revenue, (4) 9.5% WACC. Key downside risks include: (1) weaker-than-expected Saudi macro, reliant on oil prices, (2) slower-than-anticipateddigitalization of the Saudi public services, weighing on product revenue, (3) intensifying competition in the BPO segment, (4) tech talent scarcityand elevated attrition affecting margins, (5) FCF pressure from unfavourable working capital dynamics (namely delays in collection of governmentreceivables), (6) M&A and execution risks including related to the Thiqah deal.Analyst Certification:I, Evgenii Annenkov, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report.I, Avishay Mehra, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.Registration of non-US analysts:Evgenii Annenkov is employed by Jefferies Int'l Ltd. Dubai, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualifiedas a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore may not be subjectto the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst.Registration of non-US analysts:Avishay Mehra is employed by Jefferies Int'l Ltd. Dubai, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified asa research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore may not be subject tothe FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst.As is the case with all Jefferies employees, the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial instruments discussed in this report receivescompensation based in part on the overall performance of the firm, including investment banking income. We seek to update our research as appropriate, butvarious regulations may prevent us from doing so. Aside from certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports are publishedat irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgement.Investment Recommendation Record(Article 3(1)e and Article 7 of MAR)Recommendation PublishedRecommendation DistributedExplanation of Jefferies RatingsBuy - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of 15% or more within a 12-month period.Hold - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of plus 15% or minus 10% within a 12-month period.Underperform - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of minus 10% or less within a 12-month period.The expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) for Buy rated securities with an average security price consistently below $10 is 20% or more within a 12-month period as these companies are typically more volatile than the overall stock market. For Hold rated securities with an average security price consistentlybelow $10, the expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) is plus or minus 20% within a 12-month period. For Underperform rated securities with anaverage security price consistently below $10, the expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) is minus 20% or less within a 12-month peri