矿业供应链是否面临燃油短缺风险？

Equities & CommoditiesGlobal Are mining supply chains at risk of fuel shortages? ◆Miningoperations should have sufficient fuel stocks for Shilan Modi*, CFAAnalyst, Metals & MiningHSBC Bank Middle East Ltd, DIFCshilan.modi@hsbc.com+971 564 1212 04 ◆Supply chains may be pressured earlier, especially in the Sriharsha Pappu*Global Head of Energy & MaterialsHSBC Bank plcsriharsha.pappu@hsbc.com+44 20 7991 9243 ◆No rating or target price changes;any potential impact isregional, commodity and miningmethodologydependant Jonathan Brandt, CFAAnalyst, GEMs ex-Asia Metals & Mining,Pulp & PaperHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.jon.brandt@us.hsbc.com Near term should be ok:The EMEAminers generally haveapproximatelyfourweeks of fuel on site. This could give the miners a buffer ahead of further fueldeliveries. Incomingmonths,we think the miners may seek to optimise fuelconsumptionin the near term in order to maintain output,but this could have a “high- Ishan Jain*Analyst, Metals & Mining, Pulp &PaperHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limitedishanjain@hsbc.co.in+91 80 4550 3767 Howard Lau*, CFAAnalyst, China MaterialsThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedhoward.h.b.lau@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6625 Ex mine gate supply chains potentiallyat risk:The miners may face supply chaindisruptions in their on-land logistics–e.g.with trucking production to port–where theminers rely on third parties to provide logistics solutions. We think the SA manganese Pinakin Parekh*Senior Analyst, India Metals and CementHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limitedpinakin.parekh@hsbc.co.in+91 22 40891549 Shipping most at risk,inour view:We think the risk ofdisruptionsin the shippingmarket could impact theminers’abilityto export. Potential bunker shortages couldlimit the number of ships that become available which canpotentiallyraise rates. Asthis part of the supply chain appears mostopaque,we think this poses the largest * Employed by anon-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations HSBC Global Investment Summit 14 to 16 April 2026 Find out more Issuer of report:HSBC Bank Middle East Ltd, DIFC Disclosures & Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Fuel supplies and supply chain risks The miners may experience fuel shortages or various levels of supply chain pressure, in ourview, due tothe impact on oil and oil product shipments from the Middle East duetothe On mine supply From discussions with the companiesunderour coverage,most operations have approximatelyuptofourweeks of fuel supplysplit betweenonsitestorage, in system storage,and supplier help However,post this time period,supply is uncertain,and therefore there could be significant impact tothe ability for companies tocontinuenormal operations.Assumingthatthe near 20% impact to globalsupply is sharedequallyamongall consumers,we could see ac20% impact to diesel consumptionat mining operations. In this scenario,we think the miners who are moredependenton diesel will be In our view, the different mining methodologies also present varied risks as they require different We think the least impacted would be South African conventional underground mining as this ismostly labour and electricity intensive with the lowest diesel usage of all mining methods.Companies that are heavily skewed to this mining methodologyincludeHarmony, Sibanye,and The mostimpactedarepotentiallythe bulk miners (iron ore and coal) as they need to managerelatively high diesel consumption in theminingoperations and potentially some fuel usage in The copper miners are exposed to diesel consumptioninminesbut mostly use pipelines andtrucks to transport the concentrate to port. The water used onsite is provided bydesalination Trains Our understanding isthatcompanies normally hold diesel stockpiles in a similar manner to minesiteswhen they own and operatethe rail.A riskthereforeis where the companies are exposed tothird parties who need to manage their own supplies to ensure operations continue. As BHP and Additionally,the companies have electrified at least part of their rail networks. Kumba and ARM’siron ore exports shouldalsonot be impacted as Transnets Orex line is electrified. We think there ishigher risk of disruption in the coal space as the miners do not own the rail and trains are generally Trucksand helicopters The SouthAfricanmanganese industry makes use of trucking companies to move part of theirproduct from the mine to port. The fuel supplies for this is mainly managed by the trucking Copper miners may be impacted as some of the volumes are trucked at various operations PGM producers truck material from various operationsto the smelting and refining facilities sothis may present some risk, but the fuel