Booking Holdings：短期强势与长期风险——为股票拆分更新目标价至188美元

Richard J. Clarke, FCA+44 20 7676 6850richard.clarke@bernsteinsg.com Niall Mitchelson+44 20 7676 7144niall.mitchelson@bernsteinsg.com Price Target Booking Holdings: Short-term strength vs long-term risk.Updating TP to $188 for share split Booking’s share price is down 22% YTD, yet earnings have been climbing - EPS estimates for2026 are up 10% over the last 12 months, and 2027 estimates are up 9.5%. The dissonanceis driven by growing terminal value concerns, as investors wrangle with how AI will impact theOTA landscape over the next 5+ years. Close Date2 Apr 2026BKNG Close Price (USD)4,194.31Price Target (USD)188.00Upside/(Downside)(96)%52-Week Range5,839.41/3,765.45SPX6,582.69FYEDecDiv Yield1.0%Market Cap (USD) (M)132,848EV (USD) (M)134,471 The short term looks in good shape.Recent quarters have seen Booking run ahead of itsstated 8-8-15 algorithm, a result of strong travel demand, Booking execution in the currentlandscape and, in our view, a change in Google’s product, particularly driven by the DMA inEurope. These changes mean OTAs now feature above Google’s own hotel search product onthe results page, and face significantly less competition on the product from direct options,helping to gain back some lost share. While March traffic is a little soft due to the Middle Eastconflict, we still expect a 1-2% beat at Q1 on room nights, and web traffic growth has seen asignificant positive inflection. AI poses a real LT risk.Booking will still have a role to play in a post AI distribution travelenvironment. However, some form of disruption seems inevitable. Disintermediation fromhotels able to show up directly on LLMs (which we believe is more than the 10% large chin),take rate / margin pressure as the consumer is increasingly delivered by AI platforms, ahigher cost base as it invests to compete in an AI-powered world, and lower sponsoredlistings revenues from fewer displayable options are all plausible outcomes for Booking.Ultimately we expect Booking will have to be more selective between HSD revenue growthand margin expansion. Negative catalysts for the stock remain, with the Google AI modehotel product created in partnership with large branded hotel groups yet to launch, and willlikely we followed by more commercial products from LLMs that demonstrate the risk. Investment Implications We rate Booking Market-Perform. The short term earnings momentum still looks strong andwe don't doubt the attractive EPS outlook for the next 1-2 years, but that is available in othertravel stocks. While we retain long term concerns, the shares are already close to discountinga moderate AI disruption scenario. We update our target price for BKNG to reflect the 25-1stock split, maintaining estimates and multiple, but reflecting the higher share count drivesour target price of $188. DETAILS THE NEAR TERM LOOKS GOOD Booking’s earnings momentum looks fairly strong in the near term, with tailwinds from ongoing strong travel demand, Booking’sown execution in the current funnel and structural changes post DMA at Google (covered by Mark Shmulik). We observecontinued ST traffic strength despite macro volatility. THE CHANGES AT GOOGLE In response to DMA requirements, Google has implemented a broad range of modifications to its search results pages inEurope, particularly for hotel-related queries. The following key changes have been made: •New ‘Places sites’ and sponsored results section prioritizes OTAs and third party reference channels:Google hascreated two new sections, ‘sponsored results’ and ‘places sites’, on the former all booking channels can bid, but results aredominated by OTAs, while for the latter the results of organic SEO content from OTAs and metasearch channels are featured.For the places sites, unlike cost per click (CPC) models, these listings are displayed for free, with their positioning determinedby algorithms - almost a return to classic SEO. This section appears higher on the results page than Google Maps, reducingthe visibility of the Google Hotels metasearch tool. •Google Maps is not clickable:As well as now appearing lower down the results page, the Google Maps hotel searchwidget is no longer interactive with direct clickable links to hotels when accessed from within the European Economic Area,and date and hotel type filters have also been removed. This reduces how useful the feature is and means that users have toopen a separate window or tab for Google Maps, and search for hotels directly on the platform. •Free direct booking links are less prominent.With the reorganization of the top section of Google search results, thereare fewer Google Free Booking Links. •More Property Promotion Ad (PPA) opportunities.PPAs are the adverts that appear at the very top of Google searchresults for generic keyword searches. For example, when a user searches for ‘hotels Paris’, a row of images and links forspecific hotels appears – these are the PPAs. Before the DMA, there were only two positions here reserved