人工智能数据中心主力电源：从燃气轮机到发电机组

EquitiesMachinery AIDC prime power:from gas turbine to gensets Global ◆Gasgensetsarebecomingpopular inAIDC due to the shorterlead time(1-2 years), quickercold-start and strongerflexibility Helen Fang*Head of Industrials Research, Asia PacificThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedhelen.c.fang@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6942 ◆We expect tight supply of gas gensets (fully bookeduntil27/28) and further 10-15%pricingincrease into27-28 Sean McLoughlin*Senior Global Industrials AnalystHSBC Bank plcsean.mcloughlin@hsbcib.com+44 20 7991 3464 ◆Welike CAT (gensets & turbines with strong market position)and Weichai (gensets & SOFC withpotentialshare gain) Sunny SUN*Associate, Asia IndustrialsThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedsunny.x.y.sun@hsbc.com.hk+852 3945 3230 Why gas gensetsare getting popularas the bridge power inthe USAIDC(ex. 2):1) shorter lead timeof 1-2 years, vs2-4 yearsforgas turbines;2)better fitforradicalAI trainingload profiles:faster cold-start (30–60s vs 5–60min forgasturbines), which is crucial for AI training vs. inference/cloud;3)greaterflexibilityand modularity:smaller unit sizes (2–8MW per unit vs 20–500MW forgasturbines) make it easier to scaleupand later repurpose as backuppower once the grid connection comes online in 2030. Jennifer Pan*AssociateGuangzhou * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations We expect tight supply of gas gensets till2027-28:Due toAI-drivendemandsurge,first-tier OEMs (ie, CAT and Jenbacher (high-speed gas gensets, ex. 3);Wärtsiläand Everllence (medium-speed gas gensets, ex. 5))arefullybookedtoend-2027,andpricesrose15-20% in 2025.All-in capex fordeploying gas gensetsin datacentersis now cUSD1400-1700/kW, including 1) naked gensets: USD600-1000/kW.OEM wise, USD600-650/kW for CAT, CMI,MTU (2-8MW); USD750-800/kW forJenbacher; USD800-1000/kW forWärtsiläand Everllence(20-25MW); 2)auxiliaryequipment: USD200/kW; 3) exhaust treatment: USD100/kW, and others. We expecttight supply and further10-15%pricingincrease per year into 2027-28.Beyond that,weestimatesupply-demandof gas gensets torebalance around 2028-29(vsdieselgensetsarelikelytopeakearlierin 2027-28),when pricing could correct sharply. Who is benefiting:We likeCATgiven diversified products(diesel and gas gensets,turbines) and strong market position. We likeWeichaigiven diversified products(diesel and gas gensets, SOFC) and potential share gains in the USpowermarket,driven by 1) shorterlead time; 2) gas gensets launched in 2H26; 3) SOFC capacityramp up.Related companies includeCummins(diesel genset leader, but limitedcoverage in gas gensets),WärtsiläandEverllence(medium-speed genset leader),Rolls-Royce(leadingmanufacturer of engines, gensets and turbines),Yuchai(genset supplier).Key downside risks include slower AIDC buildout, inflationary riskandelevated energy prices due to Middle East tension, less bridgepowerdemandoutside the USwith less strained grid access,lower preference towards gas gensets. Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with theDisclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com 3:Competitive landscape: large high-speed gas gensets for data center, 2025e 4:Competitive landscape: large high-speeddiesel gensets for data center, 2025e High-speed gas gensetmarket (AIDC prime power) isdominated byCAT andJenbacher. High-speed diesel gensetmarket(AIDC backup power)is dominated by CAT andCummins, whileWeichai andYuchai are catching up withshorter lead time of30-60weeks, vs. 100 weeks for CATandCummins. 5:Competitive landscape:medium-speedgensets for data center, 2025e Medium-speed gas gensetmarket (AIDC prime power) isdominated byWärtsiläandEverllence. Gas turbine market (AIDCprime power) is dominated byGE Vernova, MitsubishiHeavy and Siemens Energy. HSBC related research Powering AI–US (3) Equities:The affordability challenge, 26 March 2026Assessing AI bottlenecks:Data centre equipment suppliers on the up, 25 March 2026Powering AI–US (2):It’s a sellers’ market–Power value chain benefits, 20 March 2026China Power Utilities: The AI power story II, 17 March 2026Powering AI–US:A new era of electricity load growth, 13 March 2026China power equipment: How Chinese gas turbines go overseas, 6 March 2026Powering AI:Diverging between the US & China, 27November 2025Assessing AI bottlenecks: Gas power equipment ramping up, 19 November 2025Power equipment OEMs: Diversified suppliers: broad-based upcycle, 22 May 2025China Power Utilities-The AI power story, 10 March 2025Datacentreequipment: Thank heavens for Jevons, 10 February 2025US Clean Tech–New model for powering AIdatacentres, 29 January 2025 Valuation and risks Disclosure appendix Analyst Certification The following analys