2026年房地产展望：引领房地产复苏

Navigating thereal estate resurgence The painful reset of privatereal estate seems to be in therearview mirror, and we expect2026 to be a good vintage forreal estate investment. Valueshave stabilized, total returnsare positive in most marketsand limited new constructionactivity bodes well for medium-term fundamentals. Shifts ingeopolitics, trade, monetaryand fiscal policy around theglobe may create headwinds andtailwinds for various sectors andgeographies, but the megatrendsthat underpin our investmentswill play out over decades. Riding the realestate recovery Real estate turned the corner in 2025, and we expect the recovery to continuebuilding momentum in 2026. An upswing in values, a falloff in new supply (whichbodes well for fundamentals) and increasing deal velocity are all contributing to abrighter year ahead. Global realestate values havebeen consistentlynudging highersince the end of2024. Global real estate values have been consistently nudging higher since the end of2024, after having reset 16.2% from peak to trough1, and total returns have beenpositive for even longer thanks to the consistent income real estate produces(Figure 1). Those positive total returns have been exceptionally broad-based—all21 countries in the MSCI Global Quarterly Property Index generated positive totalreturns in each available quarter of 2025 data (Figure 2). Over the course of 2025, real estate transaction volumes began to rebound in eachregion. Through the third quarter, rolling annual transaction volume was up 16%in Asia Pacific, 19% in Europe, and 21% in the U.S. For the first time since 2022,institutional investors in each global region are below their target allocation to realestate, providing additional dry powder for a capital markets recovery. In the U.S.,as of October, transaction prices had increased 4.2% year-over-year with all majorproperty types experiencing transaction price gains over the prior month, quarterand year. While there has been a consistent uptick in capital markets activity, bothpricing and transactions broadly remain below pre-correction levels, and we expectto see further gains towards normalization in 2026. A falloff in construction activity improves the outlook further. Construction costsremain elevated thanks to a confluence of high material prices, expensive labor andelevated construction financing rates. These factors have significantly tempered newconstruction starts (Figure 3), which means investment properties will have lesscompetition from new assets in the years ahead. This bodes well for occupancy andrent gains over the medium-term, which should further benefit the asset class. Unexpected challenges could arise as a result of an uncertain geopolitical andeconomic backdrop, but this is not new. As an asset class, real estate has beensubstantially de-risked due to the value correction experienced between 2022-2024. This does not mean real estate is without risk, but investors should considerreallocating to the asset class in 2026 if they have not already done so. Given thebackdrop, however, we believe there should be a focus on necessity real estate withmore resilient demographically driven demand drivers. Global opportunities Global real estate appears to be turning a corner. In the third quarter of 2025, all49 of 49 markets produced a positive total return2(Figure 4). The office sectorremained the most challenged globally, but we continue to see significant dispersionacross geographies. Between the third quarter in 2024 and 2025, the total returnfor German Office was negative (-0.9%), while the total return for Nordic Office waspositive (7.6%), a spread of 850 points. South Korea’s largest market, Seoul, had avacancy rate of just 4.8% and rental growth at 6.7% year-over-year as of the thirdquarter3. This example demonstrates that real estate is not monolithic; each region,country and property sector presents opportunities for investors. We expectsector selection tocontribute less toperformance thanwe have seen inthe past cycle, soasset selection andasset managementbecome moresignificant driversof return. Innovation can drive real estate returns We expect sector selection to contribute less to performance than we have seen inthe past cycle, so asset selection and asset management become more significantdrivers of return. With this in mind, artificial intelligence (AI) and energy transitiontechnologies are emerging as powerful catalysts for real estate performance in 2026.AI is transforming property operations through building automation, enhancedtenant experiences and unprecedented data center demand, enabling compressedoperating costs, more predictable NOI and opportunities for outperformance. Meanwhile, the energy transition creates investment opportunities as over 10,900companies with science-based targets drive strong occupier demand for greenbuildings (Figure 5), particularly in Europe where there are rental premiums of5-10% in certain markets. These technological