恒玄科技：AI驱动可穿戴周期，目标价255元

EquitiesElectronic Equipment &Instruments Buy:Positioning for AI-driven wearable cycle China ◆Earnings trough in 4Q25; recovery underway despite near-termmemory cost pressure MAINTAIN BUY ◆BES6100 mass production delay pushes near-term forecasts,but smart glasses cycle intact from 2027 TARGET PRICE(CNY)PREVIOUS TARGET(CNY)255.00343.00 ◆Maintain Buy;lower TP to RMB255from RMB343 Trough behind, sell-offoverdone.Bestechnic’s 2025resultsmissed ourforecastas weoverestimated market’sdemand for TWS and smartwatchesin 2025.Wesee4Q25(RMB591m in revenue)likelya cyclical troughgiven China’s extension of the consumergoods trade-in schemeofRMB62.5bn in 2026 (source:NDRC,30Dec 2025).WhileNORFlashmemory price remainsonan uptrend,we believethe impact is manageable–withNOR Flashmemoryrepresenting5-10% ofBestechnic’s SoC cost, our sensitivity analysis(Ex.1) showsa15% increaseinNOR Flashpriceswillbring4% downside to our 2026enet profit.Bestechnic’sshare price has corrected c29% since mid-January(vs CSI300:-5%), whichwebelieve is overdone onconcernsoverdemand softness and costpressure.Thestock is trading at an attractive24x 2027ePE against astrong growthprofile (42% net profit CAGR in 2025-28e), and we remain constructive onitsoutlook. Applicationdiversification a structural growth driver.On its2025 results briefing call,management notedBestechnic has established a leading position in smart glasses, withBES2800 adopted by major domestic OEMs. Management believescommercialisationforAI glassesisaccelerating, with the next-generation NPU-integrated chip to bettersupport on-device lightweight AI inference.It also notednew AI hardware categories,such as wireless microphones, smart conference devices and AI recorders, have begunscaling, benefiting from rising demand for low-power edge AI solutions.The smartwatchsegmentalsooffers further upside via product mix upgrade, with ASPsexpectedtoincrease from cUSD5 in basic watches/bands, to USD20+ in smartwatches, along withongoing customer wins, particularly overseas.We now expectitsrevenue mix of TWS/watches/others to optimise from 53%/35%/12% in 2025 to 41%/43%/16% in 2026e, andmix of otherstofurther increase to over 20% in 2027e. BES6100 sampletolaunchin 3Q26, mass production in 2027.Built on 6nm processwith a heterogeneous architecture integrating CPU/ISP/NPU, BES6100 targets c2TOPScomputing powerfocusingon ultra-low power and single-chip integration, percompany.The chip is now on track for sample-launchin 3Q26 and mass production in 2027, laterthan our previous expectation of volume ramp in 2026.While this delay pushes out near-term revenue contribution, we view it as timing-related rather than structural. BES6100 isprimarilytargetingnext-generation AI wearables, with smart glasses the core application.We believe it remains well placed to drivethenext growth cycle from 2027e.We still seeBES6100 the key medium-term catalyst, albeit with a more back-end loaded contribution. BingyiZheng* (Reg. No. S1700521060001)Analyst, A-share Technology HardwareHSBC Qianhai Securities Limited +86 21 5066 2028 * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnotregistered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Maintain Buy; lower estimates and TP to RMB255.We lower our2026-27eEPSby20-34% to reflect weaker TWS demand amid rising end-product pricing and slowerBES6100 ramp.However,weremain positive on BES6100 shipment rampuponmassproduction in 2027,andour revised 2027e net profitis9% above Wind consensus.Wecontinueto use a PEG approach to value the stock.With our estimate revisions andnew PE target of 51x (was 54x), we derive a lower TP of RMB255 (from RMB343),implying46.5% upside; accordingly, we maintain Buy. With earnings to recoversequentially through 2026 and stronger visibility into a new product cycle in 2027,weseerisk-reward remain attractive.Catalyst:DRAM price tostabiliseand BES6100mass productionin 2027.Seepage4forvaluation and key downside risks. HSBC Global Investment Summit 14 to 16 April 2026 Find out more Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in Issuer of report:HSBC Qianhai Securities LimitedView HSBC Qianhai Securities Research at: the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Financials & valuation:Bestechnic Source: HSBCQianhai SecuritiesNote:Priced at close of 01 Apr 2026 Source: Omdia, HSBC Qianhai Securities We lower our 2026e and2027eEPSby 34% and 20%, respectively, mainly reflecting weakerTWS/OWS and smartwatch demand due to rising memory costs and a delayed BES6100 ramp.Total revenue is now forecasted at RMB4,201m for 2026e and RMB5,921m for 2027, with netprofit revised to RMB727m and RMB1,205m, respectively. Comparedwith Wind consensus, our2026 net profit estimate sits 16% below, while our 2027e forecast is 9% above, reflecting ourmore cautious near-term assumptions yet continued confidence in the company’s medium-termgrowth trajectory.And we b