制药行业趋势2026年1月

Asia drives pharmagrowth, althoughoutlook for all regionsremains healthyAsia drives pharmagrowth, althoughoutlook for all regionsremains healthy January 2026January 2026 Global overview industry (in particular big pharma businesses) is confronted witha major patent cliff that will continue through to 2030, with top-selling oncology, immunology, and metabolic drugs facing the lossof exclusivity over the next few years. US tariff threats caused a front-loading surge in 2025 Global pharmaceutical production increased 9.1% in 2025, mainlydue to front-loading activity in anticipation of US tariffs. In 2026output growth is expected to slow down to 1.6%, as a retrenchmentfollowing last year’s surge will dampen production in H1 of 2026.The impact of tariff threats has been limited so far, as the US hasgranted exemptions to most major pharmaceutical producersand tariff caps have been negotiated with countries. However, thedownside risk of another tariff flare-up remains. Globally there is a shift towards premium and differentiatedpharmaceutical products, including biologics, antibody-drugconjugates, and cell and gene therapies. Demand for GLP-1weight-loss drugs remains strong, and producers of medicationin this segment are facing growth predictions of about USD 80billion by 2030. We expect that Artificial Intelligence (AI) willincrease productivity in the pharmaceutical sector in the comingyears, mainly by supporting the preclinical phase and R&D in theproduction pipeline. In the coming years industrial policy will play a larger role throughoutthe global pharmaceuticals product value chain. The Covid-19pandemic and geopolitical tensions have exposed vulnerabilitiesin national health systems, e.g. heavy reliance on importedactive pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). This has resulted in aseries of state actions to reduce reliance on imports, incentiviselocal investments and strategic stockpiling. Supply networks ofpharmaceuticals and medical devices will become more fragmenteddue to geopolitical tensions. In the mid- and long term, the developed world will remain a majorsource of demand for pharmaceuticals, as ageing and increasinglyoverweight populations drive demand for high value-addedspeciality products aimed at chronic diseases as well as genericdrugs. In emerging markets, rising insurance coverage, diagnosticsuptake, and treatment of chronic disease support structurallystrong demand. However, longer-term expansion could berestrained as governments push for cost control and introducedrug price negotiations. Healthcare spending cuts could affectR&D investment given the high cost of developing new drugs. Good long-term prospects, but healthcare spending cuts are an issue In general, the industry has robust equity, solvency and liquidity.Most pharmaceuticals and biotech businesses enjoy good accessto external financing to help sustain high R&D costs. However, the Pharmaceuticals Strengths and growth drivers Constraints and downside risks Upcoming patent cliff.The top 15 blockbuster patents will expireover the next decade. Producers of brand-name drugs are likelyto increase their R&D spending as they seek to develop newpatents. Profits could decline if they are not able to reduce costsor introduce alternative products to increase gross margins. Structural resilience.Pharma products are essential and areusually less affected by economic downturns than other morecyclical sectors. Ageing demographics.Older populations in developed marketsand China are driving demand for over-the-counter (OTC)medicines, generics and medicines for treating chronic diseases. Public health spending.Many governments are trying to containor cut public healthcare costs (including via price controls). Thisprice pressure could impact investments, given the high costs ofdeveloping new drugs. Emerging markets.Improvements in healthcare systems andgrowing disposable household incomes are driving demand.Generics and OTC drug producers will be the first to benefit. Environmental concerns.Some pharma businesses could facerising pressure from environmental activists highlighting issuessuch as pharmaceutical residues that are contaminating waterand soil. Digital technology.AI and big data analytics are improvingefficiency in drug development, clinical trials and patient care. Banks and investors.The pharma industry can sustain highR&D costs through continued access to external financing. AmericasPharmaceuticals outlook USA Margins for branded pharmaceuticals arerobust, leading to strong cash flow andcredit profiles. Many US pharmaceuticalcompanies seem financially strong or haveample liquidity sources in the financialmarkets. Relief from tariff threat for the time being We expect US pharmaceuticals outputgrowth to decelerate to 0.9% in 2026after a strong 5.2% increase in 2025. In2027 a 2.5% rebound is forecast. The USadministration has exempted genericdrugs from import tariffs for the timebeing. Additionally, exemptions have bee