实地洞察：中国黄金需求或持续

Joni TevesStrategistjoni.teves@ubs.com+65-6495 6851 Sharing insights and feedback We introduce a new subcategory of Precious Metals Research reports,"From theGround", in order to distinguish notes that particularly feature insights from our travelsand conversations with various market participants. In this first instalment, we arepleased to share what we have learned from our latest trip to China. Elevated macro concerns Conversations with various market participants in China revealed acute concerns aboutthe implications of the conflict in the Middle East. From our vantage point, the overallsentiment was quite negative, with a lot of the negative impact to the global macrooutlook seen to have already been done, even if there an offramp from the US/Israelconflict with Iran emerges in the near future. Many of those we spoke with had acautious view on what recent events mean for the US, focusing on risks of stagflationand a weaker dollar. There was scepticism about quickly markets priced in rate hikesacross global central banks, with onshore concerns seemingly more skewed towards theimpact of higher energy prices and heightened geopolitical uncertainty on growth. Underlying positive gold outlook intact Concerns about the outlook on global growth, inflation discussed and geopolitical riskslikely plays into the continued positive sentiment towards gold. Majority, if not all, of ourconversations signalled an upside bias to gold price expectations over the medium tolong term. This is not entirely surprising given strong gold demand at the start of 2026and notable resilience in March. The outlook for Q2 remains constructive, particularly ifgold prices stabilise and onshore premium holds. There does not seem to be manybottlenecks when it comes to supply and securing import quotas and permits. Moreover,retail and institutional investment demand is growing considerably amid 1) changes totax rules introduced last year (which keep investment gold exempt while raising tax costsfor jewellery); 2) banks rolling out accumulation plans that are widely distributed viaelectronic platforms, 3) insurance companies in the pilot program starting to becomemore active. Our understanding is that around half of insurance companies that are part of the pilotprogram allowed to invest up to 1% of AUM in gold have started to become moreactive. Activities should be reflected in Shanghai Gold Exchange trade volumes, as theseare the products they are allowed to trade. SGE turnover has shown an increase over thepast few weeks. Mid-tier and/or insurance companies with higher risk appetite we thinkare the ones that are likely to be more active. This is an encouraging development overalland we think the industry is still some distance from being fully allocated. Long-termupside risks could come from expanding the program to the rest of the industry and/orto other sectors as well as increasing the allowable % to total AUM. For insurancecompanies that have so far been more hesitant, the lack of expertise and gold’s lack ofyield are likely key hurdles. Near-term concerns & looking for entry levels Gold’s sharp retracement at the end of February followed by further weakness in Marchdespite rising geopolitical risks has understandably raised concerns. Virtually everyconversation we had in China covered the various reasons why gold prices came underpressure. A degree of nervousness was palpable, as market participants stress-testedunderlying assumptions and long term outlooks. Ultimately, the questions were aroundwhether current levels were attractive entry points or if there is room to be patient. Silver demand has also been strong On-the-ground feedback on strong silver demand coincides with anecdotal information,flows and various indicators. That said, latest data indicates some near-term easing indemand and onshore silver activity from the highs in previous months. The overallfundamental outlook for silver remains broadly unchanged for now. We continue toexpect restocking in China, given the decline in onshore inventories over the past fewyears and the increased investment interest. Continued strength in China’s silverdemand pulls metal away from the London/Zurich clearing system and raises the risk ofperiods of liquidity tightness. That said, downside risks to global growth presentsheadwinds to industrial demand. China trade flows and onshore turnover in futures inthe coming months are crucial in providing insights on the resilience of silver interest. Wait-and-see when it comes to PGMs When it comes to trade flows of platinum and palladium, recent trends have diverged.Platinum imports have been relatively weak vs historical averages, while palladiumvolumes have been strong. We did not receive a lot of questions on PGMs while we werein China. The muted interest seems to coincide with the decline in trading volumes andopen interest on the Guanzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX), after kicking off withsignificantly high volumes in December la