2025年中国黄金首饰消费者洞察：经济放缓中的机遇

2025 Chinese gold jewellery consumer insightsContentsWeakness, the strength and opportunitiesCyclical and structural factors behind China’s goldjewellery demand trendsCyclical forces in playStructural factors matter tooRising spending on gold jewellery: a consumerperspectiveKey consumer insightsGold jewellery ownership is high among ChineseconsumersWhy and when do consumers buy goldjewellery?The purchase journeyLooking ahead, opportunities remainConclusionAppendix 344556679101314 2025 Chinese gold jewellery consumer insightsWeakness, the strength andopportunitiesChina’s gold jewellery demand, in tonnage terms, has been weakening in recentyears (Chart1). While the surging gold price and slowing economic growth havebeen key drivers, structural factors have also had a profound impact on the sector.When looking at this in value terms, we found that consumers are raising their budgetson gold jewellery, even more so in recent years amid the surging gold price. It is clearthat consumers are still willing to buy gold jewellery products, even if they cost more.The two demand perspectives raise two key questions:•will gold’s tonnage demand continue to decline?•will consumers continue to spend on gold jewellery?To answer the first question, we cast our eye over gold jewellery’s macro drivers andthose industry trends that impact demand. But to address the second question wedelved deeper, gaining in-depth insights, particularly from consumers.To do this we partnered with a global research agency in 2024 to conduct a large-scaleconsumer research project in major gold markets, including China. The resultingvaluable insights from Chinese gold jewellery consumers have helped us to identify keytrends and opportunities in the market.Chart1:China’s gold jewellery demand has slowed after peaking in 2013**Jewellery value based on annual averages of Au9999 in RMB.Source: Metals Focus, World Gold Council01002003004005006007008009001,000199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024TonnesGold jewellery demand in ChinaGold jewellery demand total value (RHS) 050100150200250300 03RMB bn M1 money supply trends, a leading indicator offinished goods inventory, further suggests this limboperiod may persist (Chart3).Chart2:China’s gold jewellery demand exhibitssomecyclical signsQuarterly y/y changes in finished industrial goodsinventory and gold jewellery demand**Both data to Q1 2025.Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Metals Focus, World Gold CouncilChart3:M1 trends imply that the current passivedestocking phase may persist for a whileMonthly y/y changes inindustrial finished goodsinventories and M1 money supply**M1 data to June 2025. Inventory data to May 2025.Source: National Bureau of Statistics, World Gold Council-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%Finished industrial goods inventory (y/y)Gold jewellery demand (RHS, y/y)-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2002200420072009201220152017202020222025Finished industrial goods inventory (y/y)M1 (lagging 12M, RHS, y/y) 2025 Chinese gold jewellery consumer insightsCyclical and structuralfactors behind China’s goldjewellery demand trendsChina’s gold jewellery demand has experienced aroller-coaster ride in past decades (Chart1). Demandsurged by 362% between 2001 – whenthe unifiedpurchase and distribution modelwas suspended –and 2013 – when demand peaked amid the bargain-hunting buying frenzy. During this period, factors suchas market liberalisation, growing consumer wealth,and urbanisation fuelled growth.But consumption, in terms of quantity, entered asustained decline after 2013, and by 2024 had fell49%, despite periodic rebounds. This downward trendwas driven by multiple factors: slowing economicgrowth, younger consumers’ weakening attachment togold, and a higher gold price, especially after 2022.And we believe such weakness is driven by bothcyclical forces and structural factors.Cyclical forces in playThe changes in China’s gold jewellery demand, as inother consumer goods, exhibit cyclical trends (Chart2). Our modelling analysis reveals that economicgrowth and interest rate levels are key in determininggold jewellery consumption in the country. Suchmacroeconomic drivers are inherently cyclical innature; and gold jewellery consumption also reflectsobservable cyclical patterns.As illustrated below, China’s gold jewellery demandclosely tracks the 3 ~ 4-year inventory cycle (commonlyreferred to as the Kitchin cycle).1Currently, the economy appears to be in a protractedtransition between passive destocking – the earlyphase of recovery based on the Kitchin cycle – andactive restocking, where the economy booms. Wehave been stuck in this transitioning period, whichbegan in H2 2023, longer than has been seen inprevious cycles. This is mainly due to a weak consumerspending appetite after the COVID-19 pandemic, theproperty sector downturn, and external pressures,such as the ongoing US trade tens