摩尔多瓦的通胀目标制

Moldova’s InflationTargeting Regime Philipp Engler and Roland Meeks SIP/2026/025 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed on February 10, 2026. This paper isalso published separately as IMF Country Report No 26/025. 2026APR IMF Selected Issues Paper European Department Moldova’s Inflation Targeting Regime, Republic of MoldovaPrepared by Philipp Engler and Roland Meeks* Authorized for distribution by Alina IancuApril2026 IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on February 10, 2026. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No26/060. ABSTRACT: This chapter reviews the evolution of Moldova’s inflation targeting (IT) regime since its introduction in 2013,focusing on the National Bank of Moldova’s (NBM) operational framework in a challenging macro-financialenvironment. Inflation has been volatile and largely driven by exogenous factors, including food, fuel, regulatedenergy prices, and high exchange rate pass-through, complicating the conduct of IT in a small, open, andpartially dollarized economy. Empirical evidence shows that monetary policy initially reacted mainly toexchange rate movements, targeting inflation only indirectly. Since 2020, policy has shifted toward a moreconventional IT framework, with systematic responses to the inflation gap, reduced foreign exchangeintervention, and strengthening monetary transmission. The chapter also assesses the costs of high reserverequirements and discusses options for their gradual normalization. SELECTED ISSUES PAPERS Moldova’s InflationTargeting Regime Republic of Moldova Prepared by Philipp Engler and Roland Meeks1 REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA SELECTED ISSUES Prepared ByPhilipp Engler (AllEUR) and Roland Meeks (MCM)with contributions from Sergio Sola (MCM) ApprovedBy European Department CONTENTS MOLDOVA’S INFLATION TARGETING REGIME _______________________________________1 A.Context _______________________________________________________________________________1B.The NBM’s Evolving Instrument Use and Implications ________________________________3C.Policy Discussion______________________________________________________________________7References_______________________________________________________________________________9 Technical Annex________________________________________________________________________10 A.Pass-Through Estimation _____________________________________________________________10B.Taylor Rule Estimation _______________________________________________________________11C.The Transmission of the Base Rate to Bank Rates _____________________________________11D.The FXI Reaction Function ____________________________________________________________11E.Costs of Reserve Requirements _______________________________________________________12F.Effects of Changes of the Required Reserve Ratio_____________________________________12 FIGURES Figure 1. The NBM’s FXI Practice ________________________________________________________5Figure 2. Costs of Reserve Requirements_______________________________________________6 MOLDOVA’S INFLATION TARGETING REGIME1 This paper examines the challenges of the National Bank of Moldova (NBM) in building its inflationtargeting (IT) regime since 2013. It describes its evolving use of instruments and some of thoseinstruments’ effects. It also describes the welcome shift away from de facto targeting the exchange ratetowards a more standard IT regime. The paper further describes the benefits of reducing reserverequirements and discusses policy options going forward. A.Context 1.Moldova’s inflation targeting (IT) regime started in 2013.The National Bank (NBM)adopted a formal IT regime in late 2012, following preparatory steps in 2010 that introducedquantitative targets. Operationalization in 2013 marked a significant institutional shift: the amendedNBM Law enshrined price stability as the primary objective with an inflation target range of 5+/- 1.5percent, strengthened governance provisions, and clarified the Bank’s autonomy in setting monetarypolicy instruments. To enhance transparency, the NBM began publishing quarterly Inflation Reportswhich included detailed macroeconomic forecasts, risk assessments, and policy rationale. Tooperationalize more forward-looking policies, forecast-based decision-making was introduced,supported by a newly developed macroeconomic model and scenario analysis. This was supportedby improved communication via regular press releases and policy statements explaining howdecisions align with projected inflation paths, helping to anchor inflation expectations. 2.Inflation has been volatile and exogenously driven with high pass-through fromexchange rates to the