供应冲击风险 - 冶炼厂卷入冲突

IndustryGlobal Aluminium Supply shock risk - smelters draggedinto the conflict Liam Fitzpatrick Strikes on aluminium smelters in the Middle East Research Analyst+44-20-754-13233 Over the weekend, thetwo largest single-site smelters in the Middle East were hitby Iranian strikes, Aluminium Bahrain's Alba (capacity 1.6 mtpa) and EGA's AlTaweelah (1.6 mtpa). These attacksfollow strikes on Iranian steel assets onFriday. There were no reported fatalities, but several employees at both sitessustained injuries. The companies have not yet provided details on the extent ofdamage or potential production losses. Bastian SynagowitzResearch Analyst+41-44-227-3377 Cody HaydenResearch Analyst+44-20-754-13230 Before this weekend, two smelters (Qatalum and Alba) had announced partialcurtailments totalling almost 600 ktpa (~2% of ex-China supply). The region isheavily reliant on alumina imports through the Strait of Hormuz, and further smeltercuts are likely in the coming days and weeks due to dwindling stockpiles.Uncontrolled power outages can be very damaging to aluminium potlines, socompanies in the region may decide to preemptively shut down facilities in acontrolled manner in order to reduce future restart and ramp-up costs. Withaluminium assets now being dragged into the conflict, and given the importance ofthe ME to ex-China supply, prices and premiums could potentially squeeze muchhigher; in 2022, the fear of disruptions to Russian supply (~4 mtpa) pushed theauminium price to almost $4,000/t, although the eventual production losses fromRussia were, in the end, minimal. Hydro (BUY) is one of the few ways to gain meaningful exposure to aluminium inEurope, but note the company does have some exposure to the region through its50% JV stake in Qatalum (~5% of group EBITDA in 2025). RIO's aluminiumoperations (excluding bauxite and alumina) account for ~7% of group EBITDA. The Middle East is a major aluminium producerAluminium production is very energy-intensive and the ME is an important global production hub. As detailed in our recent report (link), the ME produced ~6.7 mt in2025 (from 11 smelters, Fig 3), making up ~23% of ex- China and ~9% of globalproduction. Iran produced 0.6 mt from five relatively small smelters (the data qualityis low). The two largest producers are the UAE at 2.7 mt and Bahrain at 1.6 mt, withOman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia each producing 0.4-0.8 mt. Excluding Iran, around5.4 mt is exported (17% of ex-China consumption) to Asia, Europe and the US.Taking the Middle East as a single region, it is the world's number one exporter,larger than Russia. Alumina reliance in the region is high; with the exception of the 30 March 2026Metals & MiningGlobal Aluminium Maaden smelter in Saudi Arabia, all other smelters import alumina or bauxite fromother parts of the world (the Al Taweelah smelter has an alumina refinery).Companiesare assessing alternative routes,including expensive overlandtrucking. Before this weekend, Qatalum and Alba announced partial curtailmentsdue to alumina shortages and potential power supply disruptions in the case ofQatalum. Qatalum (primary 648 ktpa, casthouse 687 ktpa) had reduced capacity by40% (~260 ktpa), while Alba (1.623 mtpa) initiated a controlled shutdown of threelines, reducing production by 19% (308 ktpa). 30 March 2026Metals & MiningGlobal Aluminium Middle East production Appendix 1 Important Disclosures *Other information available upon request *Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies,and other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primarysubject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page onour website at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/EquityResearchDisclosures. Aside from within this report,important risk and conflict disclosures can also be found at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer.Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst about the subjectissuers and the securities of those issuers. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst has not and will not receive anycompensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Liam Fitzpatrick. 30 March 2026Metals & MiningGlobal Aluminium Equity Rating and Dispersion Key The Equity Rating Dispersion Chart depicts the following: The proportion of recommendations that are rated "buy", "sell" and "hold" over the previous 12 months. This is shown forsecurities issued in the stated region e.g. "Europe Universe". See rating definitions below. This is represented by the"Compa