中国‘十五五’规划：要点及对商业房地产的影响

Major Report CBRE RESEARCHMARCH 2026 01 Highlights &Implicationsfor Commercial Real Estate Highlightsof the 15th Five-Year Plan •Overall Goal:High-Quality Development Similarly to the 14th FYP, the 15th FYP has not set a specific GDP growth target. The planprioritiseshigh-quality development and proposesthat economic growth “should be maintained within a reasonable range, with targets set for each year as appropriate.” The long-term goal ofdoubling per capita GDP by 2035 compared to 2020 remains unchanged, meaning that China's compound annual growth rate is expectedtoreach around 4.2% over the next decade. •New Quality Productive Forces: Significant Enhancement of Technological Self-Reliance The 15th FYP aims to achieve an average annual growth rate of over 7% in total social R&D expenditure, the same growth targetasthe 14thFYP, with the added value of core digital economy industries expected to increase their share of GDP from 10.5% in 2025 to 12.5%in 2030.There is to be a special focus on emerging pillar industries such as new energy and new materials and proactive planning forfuture industriesincluding quantum technology, brain-computer interfaces, and sixth-generation mobile communications. The plan proposes buildingworld-class sources of scientific and technological innovation in Beijing (Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region), Shanghai (Yangtze River Delta region), andthe Greater Bay Area, while promoting the construction of the Chengdu-Chongqing regional innovationcentre. Wuhan and Xi'an are explicitlyidentified for development as regional innovationcentres. •Stimulating Consumption: Investing in People The 15th FYP dedicates an entire chapter to “vigorously boosting consumption,” a significant increase from the 14th FYP's singlesection.Consumption is therefore set to be the foundation of China's economic transformation and upgrading over the next five years.China'shousehold consumption rate currently stands at around 40% compared to 50%-70% in Europe, the US, Japan, and Korea, indicatingconsiderable potential for growth. Investment in education, healthcare, elderly care, and childcare will play a key role in unleashing theexpansion of household consumption. •Real Estate:Focus on Transition to Stock-Oriented Real estate was also given its own chapter in the 15th FYP and assigned the theme of “high-quality development.” While a combination ofrenting and purchasing will continue to underpin real estate market development over the next five years, the principle of “housing is forliving in, not for speculation,” which appeared in the 14th FYP, was not mentioned. The 15th FYP attaches great importance toissues such astherevitalisationof existing land and housing and land renewal. In addition, Document No. 382, recently issued by the Ministry of NaturalResources, explicitly states that “newly added construction land should not, in principle, be used for commercial real estatedevelopment.”These policies mark key milestones in the real estate industry's transformation to a stock-oriented medium-to long-term model. •Sustainable Development:3060 Dual Carbon Goals Enter Critical Phase “Carbon per unit GDP” was includedfor the first time asa binding indicatorin the 15th FYPasChinashiftsfrom energy to carbon dual control.The country’s Non-Fossil Energy Share is expected to rise from 21.7% (14th FYP) to 25% at the end of the 15th FYP,becomingChina’sprimaryenergysource. Note2: Notice of the Ministry of Natural Resources and the National Forestry and Grassland Administration on Further Enhancing theGuarantee of Natural Resource Elements,[2026] No. 38, March 2026. Policy Highlights •The Digital China initiative will shift focus from digitalisation todigital intelligence.For the first time, a separatecolumn for Artificial Intelligence+ was included in the Plan.Details include empowering digital and intelligent techin technological innovation, industrial development, cultural construction, people's livelihoods, and social governance.•Establishing China as a Financial Powerhouse was proposed for the first time, identifying the financial industry asa component of national strength and international competitiveness. New objectives include strengthening long termcapital, pension finance, digital finance, andcultivating first-class investment banks and institutions.•Other goals include reducing CO2 emissions per Unit of GDP by 17% and implementing a comprehensive dual controlsystem for total carbon emissions and intensity toensure carbon peak targets are reached. Other objectives are thesustainable transformation of urban development, strengthening energy-saving and carbon-reducing retrofits ofexisting buildings, and developing ultra-low energy consumption and prefabricated buildings. Implications forReal Estate •Artificial Intelligence+ to Boost Short-Term Demand Newset-upand expansion demandfrom AI related companies grew by 270% y-o-y in 2025.While the mid-tolong-term impact of AI on the office market remains u