3月联邦公开市场委员会调查结果

Economics Fed Notes March FOMC survey results Matthew Luzzetti, Ph.D.Chief US Economist+1-212-250-6161 This note summarizes responses to our pre-FOMC investor survey, which isdesigned tounderstand expectations for the meeting and how financial marketsand market expectations are likely to respond to various potential outcomes.This Matthew RaskinStrategist Responses to this survey were submitted betweenTue3/10andFri3/13. Expectations for policy at this week’s meeting (Figures1-4) Respondents attach an average probability of89% tono change inthepolicyrate at this week’s meeting.There is some variation acrossassetclasses, with fixed income investors (96%) more confidentabouta hold Andrew FuStrategist Asignificantmajority (73%) expect Chair Powell in his press conferenceto sound neutral relative to market pricing of the policy rate path throughthe April meeting.The remainder skew hawkish, with23% expecting ▪The dot plot is expected to show an unchanged medianprojectionfor thefed funds rate this year (3.4%) and over thelonger run(3.0%).Means andmedians are aligned on this. There is a notable hawkish skew around Source:Deutsche Bank Research 16 March 2026Fed Notes Expectations foreconomic conditionsbased onthis week’s meetingoutcome In the eventof a surprise cutat this week’s meeting,the probabilitydistribution of the expected year-end fed funds rate shiftssignificantly, ▪Expectations for headline CPI are little changedconditional on thepolicydecision atthe meeting.Headline CPIisexpected tobe2.7%over thenext 12 monthsin either scenario (hold and 25bpcut).Headline CPI over ▪While there wereno significant differencesinthe expectedyear-aheadunemploymentrate(4.5%median)across the two scenarios,theprobability of a recession was noticeably higher if the Fed were to cutrates:20% with no change in rates versus 25% if the Fed cuts rates by 16 March 2026Fed Notes Source:Deutsche Bank Research Source:Deutsche Bank Research 16 March 2026Fed Notes Source:Deutsche Bank Research Anticipated market reaction this week (Figures8-9) ▪In the baseline expected scenario ofnorate cut, the median expectationis thatthe2yUSTyield would rise by2bp,10y UST yield wouldedge up ▪In the alternativesurprise-cut scenario, the median expectation is forsteepeningof the curve,withthe2y UST yieldfalling10bpsand 10y 16 March 2026Fed Notes Impact of Ongoing Oil Price Shock on Fed Policy(Figures10) ▪A significant majority (72%)view the ongoing oil price shock aspushingthe Fed in a “slightly more hawkish” direction. Equal percentages see the ▪Many respondents highlighted therecent experience of the inflationshock of 2021-2022 asa reason the Fed may skew in a more hawkish Background on respondents (Figures 11-13) ▪There were 27 respondents (though not all answered every question). ▪Most respondents are based in the US (48%) or Europe (33%). ▪The overwhelming majority have a fixed-income (48%) or multi-asset ▪Most are risk-takers (67%), either as a portfolio manager or trader. Source:Deutsche Bank Research 16 March 2026Fed Notes Source:Deutsche Bank Research 16 March 2026Fed Notes 16 March 2026Fed Notes Appendix 1 Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned leadanalyst(s). Inaddition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific Important Disclosures Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures. Aside from within this report, important risk andconflict disclosures can also be found athttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer. Investors are 16 March 2026Fed Notes Additional Information The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively'Deutsche Bank'). Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sourcesbelieved to be reliable, Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Hyperlinks to If you use the services of Deutsche Bank in connection with a purchase or sale of a security that is discussed in thisreport, or is included or discussed in another communication (oral or written) from a Deutsche Bank analyst, Deutsche Deutsche Bank may consider this report in deciding to trade as principal. It may also engage in transactions, for itsown account or with customers, in a manner inconsistent with the views taken in this research report. Others withinDeutsche Bank, including strategists, sales staff and other analysts, may take views that are inconsistent with thosetaken in this research report. Deutsche Bank issues a variety of research products, including fundamental analysis,equity-linked analys