1月美联储公开市场委员会调查结果

Economics Fed Notes January FOMC survey results Matthew RaskinStrategist This note summarizes responses to our pre-FOMC investor survey, which isdesigned tounderstand expectations for the meeting and how financial marketsand market expectations are likely to respond to various potential outcomes.This Matthew Luzzetti, Ph.D.Chief US Economist+1-212-250-6161 Responses to this survey were submitted betweenTue1/20andThu 1/22. Andrew FuStrategist Background on respondents (Figures 1-3) ▪There were45respondents (though not all answered every question). ▪Most respondents are based in theUS(47%) or Europe (24%). ▪The overwhelming majority have a fixed-income (56%) or multi-asset ▪Mostare risk-takers(60%), either as a portfolio manager or trader. Source:Deutsche Bank Research Expectations for policy at this week’s meeting (Figures4-6) ▪Respondents attach an average probability of 86% tono change inthepolicyrate at this week’s meeting. There is some variation across roles, ▪A majority (60%) expect Chair Powell in his press conference to soundneutral relative to market pricing of the policy rate path throughMarch.The remainder skewveryslightlyhawkish, with22% expecting Powell to Expectations foreconomic conditionsbased onthis week’s meetingoutcome ▪In the eventof a surprise cutat this week’s meeting,the probabilitydistribution of the expected year-end fed funds rate shiftsbyoverhalf a ▪Headline CPIisalso expected tobe higherin this scenario,with amedianof 2.8%over the next 12 months (vs 2.7% if no cut).The larger impact isin the longerrunasthe median moves up from2.5% yoy to 2.7% yoy. ▪Therewere no significant differences in the expected year-ahead Anticipated market reaction this week (Figures10-11) ▪In the baseline expected scenario ofnorate cut, the median expectationis thatthe2yUSTyield would rise by1bp,10y UST yield would be ▪In the alternativesurprise-cut scenario, the median expectation is forsteepeningof the curve,withthe2y UST yieldfalling 8bps and 10y up Source:Deutsche Bank Research Views on the next Fed chair and Fed independence(Figures12-14) ▪Respondents were mixed on theprobabilitythatChairPowellwillremainon theFedBoardof Governorsafter his chair seat expires in May. The ▪On themost likelynext Fed chair,Warsh had the mostvotesat nearly30% of respondents, thoughRieder and Wallerwere not far behind at23% each.While thebetting marketodds havesinceshifted,Warsh’sperceivedodds among survey respondents were lower than those A slight majority of respondents(52%) have modestly reducedtheirdesire to hold USD assetsbecause of the threats to Fed independence Source:Deutsche Bank Research Appendix 1 Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned leadanalyst(s). Inaddition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific Important Disclosures Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures. Aside from within this report, important risk andconflict disclosures can also be found athttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer. Investors are Additional Information The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively'Deutsche Bank'). Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sourcesbelieved to be reliable, Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Hyperlinks to If you use the services of Deutsche Bank in connection with a purchase or sale of a security that is discussed in thisreport, or is included or discussed in another communication (oral or written) from a Deutsche Bank analyst, Deutsche Deutsche Bank may consider this report in deciding to trade as principal. It may also engage in transactions, for itsown account or with customers, in a manner inconsistent with the views taken in this research report. Others withinDeutsche Bank, including strategists, sales staff and other analysts, may take views that are inconsistent with thosetaken in this research report. Deutsche Bank issues a variety of research products, including fundamental analysis, Opinions, estimates and projections constitute the current judgment of the author as of the date of this report. Theydo not necessarily reflect the opinions of Deutsche Bank and are subject to change without notice. Deutsche Bankprovides liquidity for buyers and sellers of securities issued by the companies it covers. Deutsche Bank research term ratings. Some trade ideas for equities are listed as Catalyst Calls on the Research Website(https://research.db.com/Research/) , and can be found on the general coverage list and also o